Report Investment Ratings There is no information about the industry investment ratings in the provided reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures opened lower with a gap. The production growth rate of SPPOMA is gradually slowing down, and the export data of shipping agencies are strong, which may support the market. After a period of shock and consolidation, there is a chance for palm oil futures to strengthen. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are in a high - level decline adjustment, with pressure to continue to fall and fill the previous gap. Attention should be paid to whether it can stop falling and stabilize in the range of 9200 - 9250 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: The bearish sentiment in the market has eased, showing a stop - falling adjustment trend. The tense Sino - US trade relationship still weighs on the CBOT soybean market, and the weak US soybean exports and large domestic supply lead to a weak market. The unstable industrial consumption of US soybean oil also restricts its rise. In the domestic market, soybean supply is sufficient, and soybean oil inventory is high. After market replenishment, demand weakens, and there is a possibility of a decline in the January contract [1]. Pork Short - term pressure from double - festival hog slaughter is gradually easing, but in the medium - and long - term, the slaughter volume is still increasing, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter will continue to be released. Policy is guiding industry capacity reduction, but the effect needs time. It is expected that the spot price will still face pressure until the first half of next year. The trading strategy is to short on rallies and conduct reverse arbitrage on LH1 - 5 and LH3 - 7 [3]. Meal The Sino - US trade relationship is changeable, and the fundamental situation of US soybeans has not improved. Brazilian new - crop soybeans are sown smoothly, with an expected increase in supply, which will suppress the upside of US soybeans. In the fourth quarter of 2025, domestic soybean supply is sufficient, but there is an expected gap in the first quarter of 2026, which supports the M2601 price. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are still high, and it is expected that the spot price will be weak this year. If China continues not to purchase US soybeans, the M2601 contract has support in the 2900 - 2950 range, and attention can be paid to the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage opportunity [8]. Corn In the northeast region, the new - season corn harvest is accelerating, and farmers are more willing to sell due to the expected bumper harvest, leading to price declines. In the north - China region, the harvest is affected by rainfall, and the wet - grain price is under pressure. On the demand side, the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased slightly, and feed enterprises mainly execute previous orders. However, the inventory of feed and deep - processing enterprises is relatively low, and there will be seasonal replenishment demand. Currently, the corn market has strong supply and weak demand and will remain weak [10]. Sugar In mid - September, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year, meeting market expectations. Affected by supply expectations, the raw sugar price weakened. Before the National Day, the decline in domestic sugar prices reflected market negative factors. Although the sugarcane in Guangdong and Guangxi was affected by typhoons, domestic fundamentals changed little. Affected by the sharp decline in the overseas market, the sugar price is expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. Cotton The mainstream theoretical cost of new cotton is between 13800 - 14400 yuan. Cotton enterprises with low costs can gradually hedge with the market. The hedging pressure on the main Zhengzhou cotton contract may increase when the price is above 13500 - 13600 yuan, but the cost also provides some bottom support. Downstream terminal demand is weak, but textile enterprises' cotton inventory is not high, and they have demand for raw materials at the current price. In the medium term, the cotton price will face pressure at high levels [14]. Eggs Egg prices are falling, and the breeding industry is in a loss. The supply of large - sized and small - sized eggs may decrease slightly next week, but the inventory of laying hens is still high, and there is inventory accumulation during the festival, so the supply is sufficient and excessive. The demand from food enterprises, families, schools, and institutions is weak, and it is expected that the egg market will decline in the short term without obvious positive support [17]. Summary by Category Oils and Fats - Soybean oil: On October 13, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8550 yuan, down 60 yuan (- 0.70%) from October 11. The futures price of Y2601 was 8268 yuan, down 34 yuan (- 0.41%). The basis of Y2601 was 282 yuan, down 26 yuan (- 8.44%) [1]. - Palm oil: On October 13, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9260 yuan, down 200 yuan (- 2.11%) from October 11. The futures price of P2601 was 9364 yuan, down 74 yuan (- 0.78%). The basis of P2601 was - 104 yuan, down 126 yuan (- 572.73%). The盘面 import cost in Guangzhou Port in January was 9715.7 yuan, down 176.5 yuan (- 1.78%), and the盘面 import profit was - 352 yuan, up 103 yuan (22.57%) [1]. - Rapeseed oil: On October 13, the spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10150 yuan, down 180 yuan (- 1.74%) from October 11. The futures price of OI601 was 10022 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.39%). The basis of OI601 was 128 yuan, down 141 yuan (- 52.42%) [1]. Pork - Futures: The price of the live - hog 2511 contract was 11125 yuan, down 195 yuan (- 1.72%); the price of the 2601 contract was 12135 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the spread between the 11 - 1 contracts was - 1010 yuan, down 190 yuan (- 23.17%); the position of the main contract was 57257, down 3135 (- 5.19%) [3]. - Spot: The spot price in Henan was 10950 yuan, down 50 yuan; in Shandong was 11000 yuan, down 50 yuan; in Sichuan was 10450 yuan, down 250 yuan; in Liaoning was 11150 yuan, up 100 yuan; in Guangdong was 11310 yuan, down 300 yuan; in Hunan was 10950 yuan, up 190 yuan; in Hebei was 11200 yuan, up 150 yuan [3]. Meal - Soybean meal: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 2930 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 1.01%); the futures price of M2601 was 2932 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.34%); the basis of M2601 was - 2 yuan, down 40 yuan (- 105.26%); the盘面 import profit of Argentine 12 - month shipments was - 16 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 14.3%) [8]. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2460 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of RM2601 was 2392 yuan, up 1 yuan (0.04%); the basis of RM2601 was 68 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 1.45%); the盘面 import profit of Canadian 11 - month shipments was 972 yuan, down 55 yuan (- 5.36%) [8]. - Soybeans: The spot price of soybeans in Harbin was 3880 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 3961 yuan, up 8 yuan (0.20%); the basis of the main soybean contract was - 81 yuan, down 8 yuan (- 10.96%); the spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3940 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean No. 2 contract was 3632 yuan, up 15 yuan (0.41%); the basis of the main soybean No. 2 contract was 308 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 4.64%) [8]. Corn - Corn: The price of the corn 2511 contract was 2092 yuan, down 33 yuan (- 1.55%); the FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2150 yuan, down 20 yuan (- 0.92%); the basis was 58 yuan, up 13 yuan (28.89%); the spread between the 11 - 3 contracts was - 33 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 120.00%); the bulk grain price at Shekou was 2340 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 1.27%); the north - south trade profit was 114 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 8.06%); the CIF price was 1996 yuan, up 3 yuan (0.13%); the import profit was 344 yuan, down 33 yuan (- 8.66%); the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning was 1305, down 531 (- 28.92%); the trading volume was 1621691, up 12154 (0.76%); the number of warehouse receipts was 36709, up 14009 (61.71%) [10]. - Corn starch: The price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2401 yuan down 31 yuan (- 1.27%); the spot price in Changchun was 2510 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang was 2750 yuan, unchanged; the basis was 109 yuan, up 31 yuan (39.74%); the spread between the 11 - 3 contracts was - 15 yuan, down 7 yuan (- 87.50%); the spread between the starch - corn futures was 309 yuan, up 2 yuan (0.65%); the profit of Shandong starch enterprises was 44 yuan, up 9 yuan (25.71%); the position was 292872, up 19752 (7.23%); the number of warehouse receipts was 12982, up 4954 (61.71%) [10]. Sugar - Futures: The price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5470 yuan, down 26 yuan (- 0.47%); the price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5438 yuan, down 31 yuan (- 0.57%); the price of the ICE raw sugar main contract was 15.57 cents per pound, down 0.53 cents (- 3.29%); the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts was 32 yuan, up 5 yuan (18.52%); the position of the main contract was 390023, up 4187 (1.09%); the number of warehouse receipts was 8681, down 186 (- 2.10%) [13]. - Spot: The spot price in Nanning was 5800 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5810 yuan, unchanged; the basis in Nanning was 362 yuan, up 31 yuan (9.37%); the basis in Kunming was 372 yuan, up 31 yuan (9.09%); the price of Brazilian imported sugar within the quota was 4426 yuan, down 37 yuan (- 0.83%); the price of Brazilian imported sugar outside the quota was 5621 yuan, down 49 yuan (- 0.86%) [13]. Cotton - Futures: The price of the cotton 2605 contract was 13360 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 0.11%); the price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13300 yuan, down 25 yuan (- 0.19%); the price of the ICE US cotton main contract was 63.54 cents per pound, down 0.23 cents (- 0.36%); the spread between the 5 - 1 contracts was 60 yuan, up 10 yuan (20.00%); the position of the main contract was 563408, up 8208 (1.53%); the number of warehouse receipts was 2867, down 75 (- 2.55%); the number of valid forecasts was 31, up 3 (10.71%) [14]. - Spot: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton 3128B was 14642 yuan, up 12 yuan (0.08%); the CC Index 3128B was 14789 yuan, up 14 yuan (0.09%); the FC Index M 1% was 12833 yuan, down 104 yuan (- 0.80%); the spread between 3128B and the 01 contract was 1282 yuan, up 27 yuan (2.15%); the spread between 3128B and the 05 contract was 1342 yuan, up 37 yuan (2.84%); the spread between the CC Index 3128B and the FC Index M 1% was 1956 yuan, up 118 yuan (6.42%) [14]. Eggs - Futures: The price of the egg 11 contract was 2808 yuan per 500 kg, up 2 yuan (0.07%); the price of the egg 01 contract was 3211 yuan per 500 kg, up 51 yuan (1.61%); the spread between the 11 - 01 contracts was - 403 yuan, down 49 yuan (13.84%) [17]. - Spot: The egg price in the producing area was 2.81 yuan per jin, down 0.10 yuan (- 3.57%); the basis was 6 yuan per 500 kg, down 106 yuan (- 95.02%); the price of egg - laying chicks was 2.60 yuan per chick, unchanged; the price of culled hens was 4.46 yuan per jin, down 0.18 yuan (- 3.88%); the egg - feed ratio was 2.51, down 0.32 (- 11.31%); the breeding profit was - 16.90 yuan per hen [17].
《农产品》日报-20251014
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-10-14 02:43