大越期货原油早报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term geopolitical conflict has weakened, and there is a risk of increased supply in the medium and long term. OPEC+ is steadily increasing production, the Middle East situation is stabilizing, the demand side is under continuous pressure, and short - term oil prices will continue to operate weakly. Short - term oil prices will operate in the range of 448 - 458, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: OPEC+ data shows Russia's September oil production increased to 932,1000 barrels per day, 148,000 barrels more than August. OPEC+ aims to increase production by over 2.7 million barrels per day this year, about 2.5% of global oil demand. Trump is willing to lift sanctions on Iran when it is ready to negotiate. The US federal government shutdown has affected the national economy. The overall situation is neutral [3]. - Basis: On October 13, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $64.25 per barrel, and Qatar Marine crude oil was $62.91 per barrel. The basis was 26.66 yuan per barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [3]. - Inventory: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending October 3 increased by 2.78 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 2.25 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the same period increased by 3.715 million barrels, also exceeding the expected increase of 1.885 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels. As of October 13, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.401 million barrels, which is bearish [3]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3]. - Main Position: As of September 23, the long positions of WTI crude oil main contracts increased. As of October 7, the long positions of Brent crude oil main contracts decreased, which is bearish [3]. - Expectation: The overnight market sentiment eased. OPEC+ is steadily increasing production, the Middle East situation is stabilizing, and geopolitical concerns are weakening. The demand side is under pressure. Short - term oil prices will continue to operate weakly, with a short - term range of 448 - 458 and long - term waiting and seeing [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Peace Summit: Trump called on leaders at the Sharm El - Sheikh summit to turn the US - led Israel - Hamas cease - fire into lasting peace. He invited leaders to join a "peace committee" to replace Hamas in governing Gaza. Netanyahu declined to attend [5]. - US Government Shutdown: The US federal government shutdown has entered its 13th day, affecting the national economy. The Senate will vote on a temporary appropriation bill on the evening of the 14th [5]. - OPEC Report: OPEC predicts that global oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day this year and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC+ will continue its production increase plan. In September, OPEC's total crude oil production increased by 524,000 barrels per day, and OPEC+ member countries' total production increased by 630,000 barrels per day [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Analysis - Bullish Factors: The threat of the Russia - Ukraine conflict to refineries and oil fields; Trump's tariff threat has eased [6]. - Bearish Factors: The Middle East situation has eased; there is a risk of the US government shutdown; OPEC+ is considering further production increases [6]. - Market Driver: Short - term geopolitical conflicts have weakened, and there is a risk of increased supply in the medium and long term [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: The settlement price of Brent crude oil increased from $62.73 to $63.32, up 0.94%. WTI crude oil increased from $58.90 to $59.49, up 1.00%. SC crude oil decreased from 466.2 to 451.5, down 3.15%. Oman crude oil decreased from $65.23 to $63.90, down 2.04% [7]. - Spot Quotes: The settlement price of UK Brent Dtd decreased from $65.05 to $64.35, down 1.08%. WTI crude oil increased from $58.90 to $59.49, up 1.00%. Oman crude oil decreased from $66.95 to $65.60, down 2.02%. Shengli crude oil decreased from $63.53 to $62.33, down 1.89%. Dubai crude oil decreased from $66.65 to $65.05, down 2.40% [9]. - Inventory Data: API inventory for the week ending October 3 increased by 2.78 million barrels. EIA inventory for the same period increased by 3.715 million barrels [3][10][14]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [17]. - Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: As of October 7, the net long position was 147,400, a decrease of 61,713 [19].