关税风波再起，金银价格继续刷新高

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - Tariff disputes have resurfaced, the Fed's continuous interest rate cut expectations are high, and the US government shutdown has led to a significant increase in gold and silver prices. The global stock market remains strong, and silver prices are still supported overall. International silver has broken through the historical high, and there may be short - term pressure. The market is concerned about the APEC summit at the end of the month and the possibility of China - US trade negotiations. The market's expectation of two interest rate cuts within the year is firm, and gold and silver prices continue to rise. The geopolitical friction continues, and there is internal political turmoil in many countries, but gold and silver prices rise together with the US dollar. The upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged, and the operation of buying on dips is maintained [27][62]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Tariff disputes have caused market concerns to rise and then fall, domestic risk appetite remains low, and gold and silver prices have risen significantly. The Fed restarted interest rate cuts as expected, and the market's expectation of continuous interest rate cuts is high, driving up gold and silver prices. The US government shutdown has led to the delay of economic data release, and the market continues to expect economic slowdown. The stock market and bonds show different reactions, both of which push up gold and silver prices. Geopolitical frictions continue, and there is internal political turmoil in many countries, but gold and silver prices rise together with the US dollar [27]. 2. Logic Analysis - Tariff Factor: On the early morning of October 11th, Trump posted that he would impose a 100% tariff on Chinese products exported to the US starting from November 1st (or earlier), and implement export controls on all key software. Later, he said that he might abandon the tariff threat if China withdraws the new export control plan for rare earths. The APEC summit will be held in South Korea before November 1st, and Trump hopes for a key China - US meeting during the summit [28]. - Interest Rate Factor: The Fed restarted interest rate cuts, but the Fed's statement and Powell's speech were not as dovish as the market expected. However, the market's optimistic expectation of continuous interest rate cuts is high. The market's expectation of two interest rate cuts within the year is firm. The latest "dot - plot" shows that 12 out of 19 FOMC members expect at least one more interest rate cut this year, releasing a stronger dovish signal than expected [27][41]. - Economic Data Factor: The US government shutdown has led to the delay of economic data release. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics significantly revised down last year's employment data, increasing economic concerns. The market shows a split, with bonds reflecting economic concerns and the stock market reflecting optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts, both of which are factors pushing up gold and silver prices [27]. 3. Fundamental Data - Macroeconomic Data: The report provides a large amount of US macroeconomic data from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 09, including GDP, exports, imports, trade balance, ISM manufacturing and non - manufacturing indices, consumer confidence, real estate data, employment data, inflation data, etc. For example, the GDP growth rate in 2025 - 03 was 2.02%, and the export growth rate in 2025 - 04 was 9.53% [30]. - Interest Rate Expectation Data: The expectation of a 10 - month interest rate cut is 96.7%. The expectation of three interest rate cuts this year reaches 88.3%. Different time points have different probabilities of interest rate cuts in different target rate ranges [31][34]. 4. Position Data - Shanghai Gold Position: As of October 10, 2025, the long position of Shanghai Gold's top 20 was 216,933, a decrease of 5.36% from the previous day; the short position was 77,992, a decrease of 2.12%; the net position was 138,941, a decrease of 7.09% [45]. - Shanghai Silver Position: As of October 10, 2025, the long position of Shanghai Silver's top 20 was 343,384, a decrease of 0.16% from the previous day; the short position was 249,445, a decrease of 3.73%; the net position was 93,939, an increase of 10.73% [48]. - ETF and Inventory Data: Gold ETF holdings have increased oscillatingly, and silver ETF holdings have oscillated and then risen with prices. COMEX gold inventory is oscillating and remains at the highest level in the past five years. Shanghai gold inventory continues to increase. Shanghai silver inventory has decreased but is higher than the same period last year. COMEX silver inventory has decreased slightly. The London silver spot market is hot, with a short squeeze occurring. The rental rate of the world's largest silver ETF share (SLV) has soared, and the rentable volume has dropped to 0 [51][53][59]. 5. Summary - The upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged, and the operation of buying on dips is maintained. Attention should be paid to the US spending bill and China - US trade this week. The increase in gold and silver prices has accelerated significantly, and the possibility of a callback continues to accumulate. The short - squeeze in the London silver market is expected to improve within 1 - 2 weeks, and there is still short - term price support, but the premium of London silver over New York is starting to converge, and the pressure in the London market may be alleviated [61].