广发期货《有色》日报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Due to the easing of tariff concerns and the expectation of the Fed's monetary easing policy, the copper price showed a strong trend. The shortage of copper mine supply will support the copper price in the medium and long term. The follow - up should focus on the marginal changes in demand and the rhythm of Sino - US tariff negotiations, with the main support level at 84,000 - 85,000 [1]. Alumina - The spot price of alumina is under pressure. Although the current futures price is approaching the mainstream cost range, the upside needs external factors such as supply disturbances in Guinea, rising energy costs, or improved macro - sentiment. It is expected that the short - term spot price will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,800 - 3,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum - The macro - level is favorable for the aluminum price, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance pattern. The high aluminum price restricts downstream procurement, but the low inventory level reflects the resilience of demand. It is expected that the short - term Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The raw material supply and demand contradiction is unresolved, and the post - holiday demand is recovering steadily. The inventory accumulation trend is slowing down, which provides upward momentum for the price. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is in a loose pattern, and the demand has no unexpected performance. The short - term price may rise due to macro - driving, but the fundamentals have limited support for the continuous rise. It is expected to maintain an oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the short - term tin price will continue to oscillate. The follow - up should focus on macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [10]. Nickel - The macro - risk increases, and the cost has support, but the inventory accumulation has certain pressure. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate strongly, with the main contract in the range of 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The macro - risk is amplified, the raw material price is firm, and the cost support exists. However, the peak - season demand fails to meet expectations, and the inventory removal is under pressure. It is expected that the short - term stainless steel price will oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The macro - uncertainty increases, and the market atmosphere is weak. The supply path is gradually clear, and the peak - season demand and inventory reduction support the price. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will oscillate and consolidate, with the main price center in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - Copper: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 85,045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.89%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 60 yuan/ton [1]. - Alumina: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86%. The alumina prices in various regions generally declined [3]. - Aluminum Alloy: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 dropped to 21,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% [4]. - Zinc: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45% [8]. - Tin: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 282,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74% [10]. - Nickel: The price of 1 electrolytic nickel dropped, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton [12]. - Stainless Steel: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil dropped to 13,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38% [13]. - Lithium Carbonate: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped to 73,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61% [15]. Fundamental Data Production and Import/Export - Copper: In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a decrease of 4.31%. In August, the import volume was 264,300 tons, a decrease of 10.99% [1]. - Alumina: In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a decrease of 1.74%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a decrease of 3.16%. In August, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 217,300 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons [3]. - Aluminum Alloy: In September, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 661,000 tons, an increase of 7.48%. In August, the un - forged aluminum alloy ingot import volume was 71,000 tons, an increase of 2.60% [4]. - Zinc: In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a decrease of 4.17%. In August, the import volume was 25,700 tons, an increase of 43.30% [8]. - Tin: In September, the SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 31.71%. In August, the refined tin import volume was 1,296 tons, a decrease of 40.19% [10]. - Nickel: The Chinese refined nickel production was 36,795 tons, an increase of 0.27%. The import volume was 17,010 tons, a decrease of 3.00% [12]. - Stainless Steel: The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83%. The import volume was 117,200 tons, and the export volume was 447,900 tons [13]. - Lithium Carbonate: In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, an increase of 2.37%. The demand was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12.28%. In August, the import volume was 21,847 tons, an increase of 57.79% [15]. Inventory - Copper: The domestic social inventory increased to 1.72 million tons, an increase of 15.98%. The SHFE inventory increased to 1.097 million tons, an increase of 15.42% [1]. - Alumina: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased to 649,000 tons, an increase of 5.19% [3]. - Aluminum Alloy: The social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots increased to 56,400 tons, an increase of 1.26% [4]. - Zinc: The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased to 163,100 tons, an increase of 15.35% [8]. - Tin: The SHFE inventory decreased to 5,879 tons, a decrease of 8.55%. The social inventory decreased to 7,786 tons, a decrease of 1.32% [10]. - Nickel: The SHFE inventory increased to 29,572 tons, an increase of 1.75%. The social inventory increased to 43,694 tons, an increase of 7.02% [12]. - Stainless Steel: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased to 504,600 tons, an increase of 6.93% [13]. - Lithium Carbonate: The total lithium carbonate inventory in September was 665,376 tons, an increase of 0.38%. The downstream inventory increased to 60,919 tons, an increase of 15.29% [15].