Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View Industrial silicon supply increased in October, with a larger supply increase and a risk of inventory accumulation, putting pressure on prices. There are no effective regulatory measures to reduce supply for now, and it is expected that production will decline in November when some enterprises in Southwest China reduce production during the dry - season. However, considering the possible increase in raw material costs and the rise in electricity prices in November, the price center is expected to move up. Overall, prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 11 - contract falls to around 8000 yuan/ton, buying on dips can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - The prices of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon, Huale SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged on October 13 compared to October 10. The basis of these types of industrial silicon decreased, with the basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 decreasing by 15.69%, SI4210 by 55.81%, and Xinjiang 99 silicon by 12.44% [1]. Inter - month Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 increased by 66.67%, 2511 - 2512 by 6.49%, 2512 - 2601 by 30.00%, 2602 - 2603 by 250.00%, while the spread between 2601 - 2602 decreased [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production increased by 9.10% to 42.08 million tons, with Xinjiang increasing by 19.78% to 20.32 million tons, Yunnan by 2.41% to 5.95 million tons, and Sichuan decreasing by 1.49% to 5.29 million tons. The national operating rate increased by 10.86% to 61.94%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 5.78%, and polysilicon production decreased by 1.29%. Recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 7.48%, and industrial silicon exports increased by 3.56% [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.07%, Yunnan by 7.69%, Sichuan by 2.75%. Social inventory increased by 0.37% to 54.50 million tons, warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 1.14%, and non - warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.30% [1]. Report on Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View In October, polysilicon faces increased supply pressure, with production increasing while downstream production scheduling has not increased synchronously, so there is a pressure of inventory accumulation. Currently, the futures price is at a discount, and the pressure of warehouse receipts has decreased. However, if the inventory pressure persists, the pressure of warehouse receipts may increase in the future. The demand side has not shown significant improvement. Attention can be paid to the changes in export tax - rebate policies and the increase in fourth - quarter installations. Overall, polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. As supply pressure increases, prices may be under pressure, but if the spot price is firm, there will still be strong support below. Downstream enterprises can pay attention to the opportunity of purchasing on the futures market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feedstock increased by 0.38% to 52750 yuan/ton, and the basis of N - type materials increased by 11.85%. The prices of some other products remained unchanged [2]. Futures Price and Inter - month Spread - The main contract price decreased by 0.46%. The spreads between some contracts changed significantly, such as the spread between "consecutive one - consecutive two" increasing by 14.65%, and the spreads between some other contracts increasing by 400.00% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly: Silicon wafer production decreased by 6.89% to 12.83 GM, and polysilicon production decreased by 0.32% to 3.10 million tons. - Monthly: Polysilicon production decreased by 1.29% to 13.00 million tons, imports decreased by 14.02%, exports increased by 40.12%, and net exports increased by 105.68%. Silicon wafer production increased by 5.37% to 59.05 GM, imports increased by 74.18%, exports increased by 43.95%, and net exports increased by 41.88%. Silicon wafer demand increased by 4.64% [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 6.19% to 24.00 million tons, silicon wafer inventory increased by 3.39% to 16.78 GM, and polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 2.95% to 7900 lots [2]. Report on Natural Rubber 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View On the supply side, there has been rainfall in overseas production areas, and raw material prices have been firm. However, as the rainfall is expected to improve, the supply is expected to increase, and raw material prices may weaken. On the demand side, before the "National Day" holiday, the domestic tire market was stable. The trading of semi - steel tires was dull, and the social inventory was sufficient with slow consumption. The trading of all - steel tires was average, and there was no obvious pre - holiday stocking. Affected by the US tariff policy on Friday night, commodity prices were generally weak, but the macro - sentiment recovered later, and the rubber price on Monday increased slightly compared to Friday night. Attention should be paid to the raw material output during the peak production season in the main production areas. If the raw material supply increases smoothly, the price may decline further; if not, the rubber price is expected to be around 15500 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex decreased by 2.40%, the full - latex basis decreased by 3.76%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 2.03%, and the non - standard price difference increased by 13.27%. The price of cup rubber increased by 1.58%, and the price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna increased by 1.56% [4]. Inter - month Spread - The spread between 9 - 1 increased by 250.00%, and the spread between 1 - 5 decreased by 62.50% [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, Thailand's production decreased by 0.43%, China's production increased by 12.20%, and India's production increased by 11.11%. The operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 27.07%, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 21.76%. Domestic tire production in August increased by 9.10%, tire exports decreased by 5.46%, natural rubber imports increased by 9.68%, and imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 12.42% [4]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory decreased by 1.01%, and the warehouse - receipt inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE decreased by 1.68%. The outbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in general trade increased [4]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Soda ash: It is trending weakly, with inventory accumulating significantly during the long holiday. The mid - stream delivery inventory also increased. The market is affected by the news and macro - factors, and the fundamental oversupply problem still exists. In the medium term, the downstream demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid - demand level. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the idea of short - selling on rebounds can be continued. - Glass: The production and sales are sluggish, and the market quotation is still weak. The market is trading on the logic of a non - prosperous peak season and fundamental oversupply. The mid - stream inventory in some areas remains high. In the medium and long term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to eliminate excess capacity. During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, attention should be paid to the spot purchasing rhythm, high - frequency data changes, and macro - level drivers [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread - Glass: The prices in East China decreased by 1.49%, the prices of the 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased, and the 05 - contract basis increased by 20.19%. - Soda ash: The price in the Northwest decreased by 5.00%, the price of the 2505 contract increased by 0.30%, and the 05 - contract basis decreased by 12.50% [7]. Supply - The operating rate of soda ash increased by 3.37%, the weekly production of soda ash increased by 3.37%, the daily melting volume of float glass increased by 1.16%, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [7]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 5.84%, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 3.74%, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 4.05% [7]. Real - estate Data - The year - on - year change of new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [7]. Report on Logs 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View The fundamentals of logs have not changed significantly, and there is no obvious driving force in supply and demand. The near - month contracts fell sharply due to the news that the exchange was discussing the delivery - location premium and discount, while the far - month contracts were relatively strong. During the seasonal peak season, there is some support below the market. The current market price is near the import cost and lower than the delivery cost. It is recommended to allocate more on the 01 - contract below the import cost [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - The 2511 log - futures contract decreased by 18 yuan to 803 yuan/cubic meter. The spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged, with the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong at 760 yuan/cubic meter and that in Jiangsu at 780 yuan/cubic meter [8]. Supply - The national coniferous log inventory as of October 10 was 299 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The expected number of New Zealand log - arriving ships this week is 13, an increase of 6 from the previous week, and the arrival volume is about 455,500 cubic meters, an increase of 200,500 cubic meters from the previous week [8]. Demand - As of October 10, the daily log outbound volume was 5.73 million cubic meters, a decrease of 830,000 cubic meters from the previous week [8].
《特殊商品》日报-20251014
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-10-14 03:13