广发期货《黑色》日报-20251014

Report 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View Although steel demand is weak, the cost side provides support. Pay attention to the support levels around 3000 and 3200 for the January contract of rebar and hot-rolled coil respectively. The short-term weak macro sentiment will suppress the black market, but if the Sino-US friction intensifies in the medium term, the inflation expectation of upstream resource products will increase. [1] Summary by Directory - Steel Prices and Spreads: Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3230 to 3220 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of rebar decreased from 3159 to 3139 yuan/ton. [1] - Cost and Profit: The steel billet price decreased by 10 to 2940 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot-rolled coil in East China decreased by 7. [1] - Mills: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.8 to 863.3 tons, a decline of 0.4%. [1] - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 127.9 to 1600.7 tons, an increase of 8.7%. The rebar inventory increased by 57.4 to 659.6 tons, an increase of 9.5%. [1] - Trading and Demand: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.7 to 9.1 tons, a decline of 7.1%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 153.4 to 751.4 tons, a decline of 17.0%. [1] Report 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. The weak performance of finished products drags down the raw materials. The iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract at low levels and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot-rolled coil. [4] Summary by Directory - Iron Ore Prices and Spreads: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the 1-5 spread increased by 3.0 to 23.5, an increase of 14.6%. [4] - Supply: The weekly global shipment volume of iron ore decreased by 71.5 to 3207.5 tons, a decline of 2.2%, and the 45-port arrival volume increased by 437.1 to 3045.8 tons, an increase of 16.8%. [4] - Demand: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. The national monthly crude steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9 tons, a decline of 2.9%. [4] - Inventory Changes: The 45-port inventory increased by 46.7 to 14024.5 tons, an increase of 0.3%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 990.6 to 9046.2 tons, a decline of 9.9%. [4] Report 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View For coke, it is recommended to go short on the Coke 2601 contract at high levels, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke. For coking coal, it is recommended to go short on the Coking Coal 2601 contract at high levels, with a reference range of 1050 - 1200, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal. [6] Summary by Directory - Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads: The prices of coke and coking coal contracts mostly declined. For example, the 01 contract of coke decreased from 1667 to 1643 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract of coking coal decreased from 1161 to 1146 yuan/ton. [6] - Supply: The daily average output of all-sample coking plants remained unchanged at 66.1 tons, and the output of raw coal decreased by 31.3 to 836.7 tons, a decline of 3.6%. [6] - Demand: The iron ore output decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. [6] - Inventory Changes: The total coke inventory decreased by 10.1 to 909.8 tons, a decline of 1.1%, and the coking coal inventory of all-sample coking plants decreased by 78.7 to 959.1 tons, a decline of 7.6%. [6]