《能源化工》日报-20251014

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Methanol - The market was affected by the news that some freight forwarders' warehouses had suspended accepting Iranian goods, leading to a significant strengthening of port prices and basis. The 01 contract is currently oscillating between real - time pressure and future expectations. The supply side has a resumption expectation for some inland plants, and the relatively healthy inventory structure in the inland provides some support for prices. The demand side shows weakness as traditional downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the new polyolefin plant commissioning expectation continuously suppresses MTO demand. With the current situation of high port inventory and weak basis, attention should be paid to the expected supply reduction due to overseas gas restrictions in mid - October. Overall, focus on overseas plant operations, sanctions on Iranian vessels, and the actual arrival of imported goods [1]. Polyolefins - Polyolefins still face significant post - holiday inventory pressure. On the supply side, the PE operating rate is continuously rising, with few planned maintenance, and domestic production is steadily increasing. Additionally, the year - end overseas inventory clearance impacts the market, resulting in prominent medium - to - long - term supply pressure. Attention should be paid to the trading and cancellation of North American goods in the future. For PP, due to the sharp decline in propane and crude oil prices, its valuation has been significantly repaired, and the restart rhythm of plants needs to be monitored. In October, the commissioning pressure of new plants is high, and the demand side still lacks highlights. The supply - demand structure is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: There are expectations of the resumption of some overhauled plants and the commissioning of new production capacity, so the domestic pure benzene supply remains at a relatively high level. On the demand side, most downstream products of pure benzene are in a loss - making state, some secondary downstream inventories are high, and some downstream plants have planned and unplanned production cuts, so the demand support is limited. In terms of inventory, the upcoming vessels are at a low level, and the spot buying interest is stronger than that of the far - month contracts, so the pure benzene port inventory continues to decline. In October, the overall supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to be relatively loose, and the price driver is weak. Attention should be paid to the impact of oil price trends and geopolitical situations on market sentiment. The BZ2603 contract is expected to oscillate following styrene and oil prices [7]. - Styrene: There are expectations of new plant commissioning and the resumption of previously shut - down plants, so the supply is expected to increase. Although some plants are shut down for maintenance due to inventory and industry profit pressure, it is still difficult to fully offset the pressure of new and resumed production, and the overall supply is expected to remain at a high level. Affected by the holiday, the operating rate decreased this week, but the rigid demand support in the seasonal peak season still exists and is expected to gradually recover to the pre - holiday demand level. However, the profit of some downstream industries is under pressure, and the finished product inventory remains high, so the demand support may be limited. Attention should be paid to the situation where the de - stocking rhythm fails to meet expectations and the disturbances of geopolitical and macro news. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be relatively loose, and the styrene price is still under pressure under the weak oil price expectation. The EB11 price should be treated as a short - selling opportunity on rebounds [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The spot trading is fair, and the overall quotation is stable with a slight decline. The downstream alumina demand is average, so the caustic soda price is under pressure. The change in the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is limited, and the driving effect on the incremental demand for alumina is still limited. Under the supply - demand mismatch pattern, the domestic spot price is expected to continue the weak trend. From the perspective of the alumina commissioning rhythm, there will be more alumina commissioning in the first quarter of next year, so there may be concentrated stockpiling behavior in the fourth quarter of this year, and the spot liquidity may tighten at that time. After the pre - holiday non - aluminum stockpiling ended, the purchases are mainly for rigid demand. After the National Day, as the non - aluminum inventory decreases, there may be a purchase intention due to the low price. In the medium - to - long - term, caustic soda has demand support, but it lacks short - term support and tends to be weak. It can be treated as a short - selling opportunity in the short - term, and the downstream stockpiling rhythm needs to be tracked [8]. - PVC: The frequency of maintenance of PVC production enterprises has increased recently, and the market supply pressure has been slightly relieved. The domestic and foreign trade exports have gradually recovered after the holiday. However, the industry still faces inventory accumulation pressure in the short - term, although the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The short - term external macro - environment expectation is not good, which may continue to affect the market trend in the near future. On the demand side, the peak season has not shown obvious performance, and the profile demand has continued to shrink, showing obvious characteristics of a non - peak season. Overall, the willingness of upstream enterprises to hold goods has decreased, but the export has relieved some of the over - supply pressure. Attention should be paid to the cost support, and the short - term market is expected to continue to be under pressure. Focus on the downstream demand performance [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The domestic PX operating load remains at a high level. On the demand side, due to the continuously low PTA processing fee, some PTA plants have overhaul expectations, but there are also new PTA plant commissioning expectations, and the polyester load remains stable in the short - term, so the PX demand side has some support. In the fourth quarter, the overall supply - demand of PX is expected to be relatively weak. Coupled with the limited price driver under the weak oil supply - demand expectation and the repeated tariff policies, PX may oscillate weakly in the short - term. The strategy is to wait and see for now and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds; mainly conduct backwardation arbitrage [9]. - PTA: Under the weak supply - demand expectation, the basis repair driver is limited. In terms of absolute price, the price driver is limited under the weak oil supply - demand expectation, and there are negative factors such as repeated tariff policies. PTA may oscillate weakly in the short - term. The strategy is to wait and see for TA, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds; treat the TA1 - 5 spread as a rolling backwardation arbitrage [9]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): The arrival of MEG at the main ports this week is still high, and the port inventory is expected to continue to rise next week. The new Yulong Petrochemical plant has been commissioned, and the plant load will gradually increase. The satellite petrochemical plant has restarted smoothly, and the domestic supply remains at a high level. MEG is expected to accumulate inventory in October, and the supply - demand structure in the far - month is weak, with a high inventory accumulation amplitude from November to December, making MEG operate weakly. The strategy is to short EG01 on rallies; hold the seller position of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350; conduct backwardation arbitrage on EG1 - 5 at high levels [9]. - Short - fiber: The short - fiber supply - demand is expected to be weak. Currently, the short - fiber supply remains at a high level. During the National Day, the short - fiber factory inventory did not accumulate much, and the post - holiday inventory pressure is not large. However, affected by tariffs, the terminal demand in the fourth quarter is insufficiently supported. Therefore, short - fiber is likely to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation channel. The PR price will mainly follow the cost side, and the cost side is weak, so the short - term short - fiber processing fee has improved. The strategy is the same as that of PTA for the single - side trading; the short - fiber processing fee on the disk is expected to oscillate in the range of 800 - 1100, and mainly expand the spread at low levels, but the driving force is limited [9]. - Bottle - chip: There is no news of further production cuts for bottle - chip plants in October. The fourth quarter is the traditional off - season for bottle - chip demand. Considering the gradual cooling of the weather in October, the demand for soft drinks and catering has slightly declined, and the demand side provides limited support for bottle - chips. The PR price will mainly follow the cost side, and the cost side is weak, so the short - term bottle - chip processing fee has improved. The strategy is the same as that of PTA for the single - side trading; the PR main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - Price and Spread: On October 13, compared with October 10, the MA2601 closing price increased by 35 to 2342, a 1.52% increase; the MA2605 closing price increased by 3 to 2354, a 0.13% increase; the MA15 spread increased by 32 to - 12, a - 72.73% change; the Taicang basis increased by 82 to - 54, a - 60.29% change. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Taicang Port all increased, with increases of 0.73%, 0.23%, and 3.84% respectively. The regional spreads of Taicang - Inner Mongolia North Line and Taicang - Luoyang increased by 47.46% and 400.00% respectively [1]. - Inventory: As of the latest data, the methanol enterprise inventory increased by 1.95 to 33.94, a 6.08% increase; the methanol port inventory increased by 5.10 to 154.3 million tons, a 3.42% increase; the methanol social inventory increased by 7.05 to 188.3, a 3.89% increase [1]. - Operating Rate: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.78 to 78%, a 1.01% increase; the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate increased by 3.65 to 72.1%, a 5.33% increase; the northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio increased by 3.99 to 104%, a 3.99% increase. Among the downstream, the operating rate of externally - purchased MTO plants increased by 3.82 to 86.28%, a 4.63% increase, while the operating rates of formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE decreased by 8.22%, 0.97%, and 0.59% respectively [1]. Polyolefins - Price and Spread: On October 13, compared with October 10, the L2601 closing price decreased by 54 to 7053, a - 0.77% decrease; the L2509 closing price decreased by 53 to 7071, a - 0.74% decrease; the PP2601 closing price decreased by 29 to 6753, a - 0.43% decrease; the PP2509 closing price decreased by 36 to 6746, a - 0.53% decrease. The prices of various PE and PP products in East China also showed different degrees of decline [5]. - Inventory: The PE enterprise inventory increased by 10.59 to 48.9, a 27.67% increase; the PE social inventory decreased by 1.03 to 52.5, a - 1.93% decrease. The PP enterprise inventory increased by 16.11 to 68.1, a 30.96% increase; the PP trader inventory increased by 7.39 to 26.1, a 39.48% increase [5]. - Operating Rate: The PE plant operating rate increased by 1.85 to 83.9%, a 2.26% increase; the PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 0.23 to 44.4%, a 0.52% increase. The PP plant operating rate increased by 1.14 to 77.7%, a 1.5% increase; the PP powder operating rate increased by 2.01 to 39.3%, a 5.4% increase; the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 0.05 to 51.8%, a 0.1% increase [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Upstream Price and Spread: On October 13, compared with October 10, the Brent crude oil (November) price increased by 0.59 to 63.32 dollars/barrel, a 0.9% increase; the WTI crude oil (October) price increased by 0.59 to 58.90, a 1.0% increase; the CFR Japan naphtha price decreased by 10 to 567, a - 1.7% decrease; the CFR Northeast Asia ethylene price remained unchanged at 785; the CFR China pure benzene price decreased by 3 to 703 dollars/ton, a - 0.4% decrease. The spreads of pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha increased by 5.2% and 4.7% respectively [7]. - Styrene - related Price and Spread: The styrene East China spot price decreased by 70 to 6680, a - 1.0% decrease; the EB2511 futures price decreased by 53 to 6690, a - 0.8% decrease; the EB2512 futures price decreased by 52 to 6708, a - 0.8% decrease. The EB basis (11) decreased by 17 to - 10, a - 242.9% change; the EB11 - EB12 spread decreased by 1 to - 18, a - 5.9% change. The EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 57 to - 284 yuan/ton, a - 25.2% decrease, while the EB cash flow (integrated) increased by 28 to - 427, a 6.2% increase [7]. - Inventory: The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.10 to 9.00 million tons, a - 1.1% decrease; the styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.54 to 19.65, a - 2.7% decrease [7]. - Industry Chain Operating Rate: The Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 1.1% to 80.1%, a 1.4% increase; the domestic pure benzene operating rate increased by 0.6% to 79.3%, a 0.7% increase; the domestic hydro - benzene operating rate decreased by 0.8% to 63.2%, a - 1.2% decrease. Among the downstream, the PS operating rate decreased by 1.7% to 54.6%, a - 3.0% decrease; the EPS operating rate decreased by 2.4% to 40.7%, a - 5.5% decrease; the ABS operating rate increased by 1.5% to 71.0%, a 2.1% increase [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Spot and Futures Price: On October 13, compared with October 10, the Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted - to - 100% price increased by 46.9 to 2593.8, a 1.8% increase; the Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted - to - 100% price remained unchanged at 2600. The East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 30 to 4610, a - 0.6% decrease; the East China ethylene - based PVC market price remained unchanged at 4900 [8]. - Overseas Quotation and Export Profit: The FOB East China port caustic soda price remained unchanged at 400 dollars/ton, and the export profit decreased by 0.6 to 164.1 yuan/ton, a - 0.4% decrease. The CFR Southeast Asia PVC price and the CFR India PVC price remained unchanged at 650 and 730 dollars/ton respectively, and the FOB Tianjin Port calcium carbide - based PVC price remained unchanged at 605 dollars/ton. The PVC export profit increased by 52.7 to 102.9 yuan/ton, a - 105.0% change [8]. - Supply (Operating Rate and Industry Profit): The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.4 to 88.2%, a 1.6% increase; the Shandong sample caustic soda operating rate increased by 0.4 to 86.0%, a 0.5% increase; the PVC total operating rate increased by 4.7 to 80.8%, a 6.2% increase. The profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 50 to - 946 yuan/ton, a - 5.6% decrease [8]. - Demand (Downstream Operating Rate): The alumina industry operating rate decreased by 0.3 to 83.4%, a - 0.3% decrease; the viscose staple fiber industry operating rate decreased by 0.2 to