供应扰动再起，铜价延续强势

Report Title - Supply Disturbance Resumes, Copper Prices Remain Strong [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the copper market may experience a slight surplus, and the supply and demand will remain in a tight - balance. Copper price fluctuations are mainly driven by macro - sentiment. Affected by the mudslide incident in the Freeport Indonesia mining area and the peak consumption season in October, copper prices are expected to be strong, and it is advisable to buy on dips. Copper prices may reach a record high [85]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Review - Not provided in the content 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - US CPI has rebounded from a low level, with the CPI in May at 2.9% [14] 3. Fundamental Aspect - Supply - Demand Balance: The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) indicates that the global copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and may be in a tight - balance in 2025 [20] - Supply - Mine Output: The new output of various mines from 2024 - 2026 is provided in a table, with a total new output of 559 thousand tons in 2024, 665 thousand tons in 2025, and 557 thousand tons in 2026 [28] - Supply - Domestic Refined Copper Output: Not elaborated in detail - Supply - Processing Fees: Processing fees have reached a new low [35] - Downstream Copper Consumption: In SMM China's terminal industries, the power industry has the highest copper consumption at 31080 thousand tons (45.77%), followed by home appliances at 10080 thousand tons (14.84%), transportation at 7850 thousand tons (11.56%), other industries at 6960 thousand tons (10.25%), mechanical electronics at 6030 thousand tons (8.88%), and construction at 5910 thousand tons (8.7%) [38] - Demand - Domestic Power Grid: As of the first 8 months of 2025, the demand has increased by 13.99% year - on - year, with a cumulative demand of 379.5 billion. Equipment replacement in 2025 will drive grid demand, and policies provide some support [48] - Demand - Real Estate: As of the first 8 months of 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 573.03 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; the new construction area was 398.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%; and real estate investment was 603.09 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. Despite policy relaxation, the real estate market is unlikely to perform well in 2025 [50] - Demand - Air Conditioners: As of the first 8 months of 2025, the air - conditioner production increased by 5.8% year - on - year, with a production of 199.64 million units. In 2025, domestic equipment replacement may drive growth, but exports face pressure [52] - Demand - Automobiles: As of the first 8 months of 2025, the cumulative automobile production was 21.05 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. In 2025, traditional automobile consumption faces great pressure, and the growth rate of new - energy vehicles may also slow down [56] 4. Futures Market Structure - Inventory: Data on LME, SHFE, Comex, and bonded - area inventories from 2021 - 2025 are presented in graphs [63][64] - Premium and Discount: Information on the spot premium status at home and abroad is provided [71] - CFTC: Not elaborated in detail - Domestic Funds: The long - and short - position rankings of domestic futures companies are presented in a table [76] - Open Interest: Not elaborated in detail - Technical Aspect: The weekly chart of Shanghai copper is mentioned [79] 5. Outlook - Indonesia Grabber Block Cave Mine Incident: A mudslide on September 8, 2025, led to the suspension of mining operations. It is estimated to cause a production reduction of 200 thousand tons in 2025 (0.8% of the global total) and 300 thousand tons in 2026 (1.2% of the global total). In the futures market, it may stimulate copper prices to rise, and in the stock market, it is beneficial for the profit growth of copper - mining enterprises [84] - Summary and Outlook: In 2025, there will still be disturbances in the mining end, and demand is difficult to release rapidly. The supply and demand will remain in a tight - balance, and copper price fluctuations are mainly due to macro - sentiment. Copper prices are expected to be strong [85]