Group 1: Methanol Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The methanol market is affected by the news that some freight forwarders' warehouses have suspended accepting Iranian goods, causing port prices and basis to strengthen significantly. The 01 contract fluctuates between real - world pressure and future expectations. The supply side has a resumption expectation for some inland plants, and the inland inventory structure is relatively healthy, supporting prices. The demand side shows weakness as traditional downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the expected new polyolefin plant production suppresses MTO demand. With high port inventory and weak basis, attention should be paid to the expected supply reduction due to overseas gas restrictions in mid - October. Overall, focus on overseas plant operations, sanctions on Iranian vessels, and actual import arrivals [1]. Summary by Directory - Price and Spread: MA2601 closed at 2342 on October 13, up 35 (1.52%) from October 10; MA2605 closed at 2354, up 3 (0.13%); MA15 spread was - 12, up 32 (- 72.73%); Taicang basis was - 54, up 82 (- 60.29%); Inner Mongolia northern line spot was 2083 yuan/ton, up 15 (0.73%); Henan Luoyang spot was 2200, up 5 (0.23%); Taicang port spot was 2300, up 85 (3.84%); the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia northern line was 218, up 70 (47.46%); the regional spread between Taicang and Luoyang was 100, up 80 (400%) [1]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory was 33.94, up 1.95 (6.08%); methanol port inventory was 154.3 tons, up 5.1 (3.42%); methanol social inventory was 188.3, up 7.05 (3.89%) [1]. - Operating Rate: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 78%, up 0.78 (1.01%); the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate was 72.1%, up 3.65 (5.33%); the northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio was 104%, up 3.99 (3.99%); the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was 86.28%, up 3.82 (4.63%); the downstream formaldehyde operating rate was 30.1%, down 2.7 (- 8.22%); the downstream glacial acetic acid operating rate was 85.1%, down 0.83 (- 0.97%); the downstream MTBE operating rate was 66.2%, down 0.39 (- 0.59%) [1]. Group 2: Polyolefin Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The polyolefin market still faces significant post - holiday inventory pressure. On the supply side, the PE operating rate continues to rise, with few planned maintenance, and domestic production is increasing steadily. Overseas end - of - year inventory clearance also impacts the market, leading to prominent medium - and long - term supply pressure. For PP, due to the sharp decline in propane and crude oil, its valuation has been significantly repaired, and attention should be paid to the device restart rhythm. In October, the new device production pressure is high, and the demand side lacks highlights. The supply - demand structure is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited [5]. Summary by Directory - Price and Spread: L2601 closed at 7053 on October 13, down 54 (- 0.77%) from October 10; L2509 closed at 7071, down 53 (- 0.74%); PP2601 closed at 6723, down 29 (- 0.43%); PP2509 closed at 6746, down 36 (- 0.53%); L2509 - 2601 was 88, up 1 (1.15%); PP2509 - 2601 was 20, down 40 (- 11.67%); the East China PP drawn wire spot was 6630, down 80 (- 1.21%); the North China LLDPE film material spot was 6980, down 30 (- 0.43%); the North China LL basis was - 30, up 30 (- 50%); the East China pp basis was - 90, unchanged (0%) [5]. - Inventory: PE enterprise inventory was 48.9, up 10.59 (27.67%); PE social inventory was 52.5, down 1.03 (- 1.93%); PP enterprise inventory was 68.1, up 16.11 (30.96%); PP trader inventory was 26.1, up 7.39 (39.48%) [5]. - Operating Rate: The PE device operating rate was 83.9%, up 1.85 (2.26%); the PE downstream weighted operating rate was 44.4%, up 0.23 (0.52%); the PP device operating rate was 77.7%, up 1.14 (1.5%); the PP powder device operating rate was 39.3%, up 2.01 (5.4%); the downstream weighted operating rate was 51.8%, up 0.05 (0.1%) [5]. Group 3: Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View For pure benzene, there are expectations of plant resumption and new capacity production, with high domestic supply. The demand side is weak as most downstream products are in loss, and some downstream devices plan to reduce production. The port inventory is decreasing. In October, the overall supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price driver is weak. For styrene, there are expectations of new device production and plant resumption, with increasing supply. The demand is affected by the holiday, with the seasonal peak demand providing some support but limited due to high downstream inventory. The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price is under pressure [7]. Summary by Directory - Price and Spread: Brent crude oil (November) was $63.32 on October 13, up $0.59 (0.9%); WTI crude oil (October) was $58.90, up $0.59 (1%); CFR Japan naphtha was $567, down $10 (- 1.7%); CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was $785, unchanged (0%); CFR China pure benzene was $703, down $3 (- 0.4%); pure benzene - naphtha spread was 136, up 7 (5.2%); ethylene - naphtha spread was 218, up 10 (4.7%); pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged (0%); pure benzene East China spot was 5720 yuan/ton, down 15 (- 0.3%); BZ futures 2603 was 5682 yuan/ton, down 52 (- 0.9%); BZ basis (03) was 38, up 37 (3700%); pure benzene import profit was - 35 yuan/ton, up 13 (26.6%); exchange rate (RMB central parity) was 7.1007, down 0.0041 (- 0.1%) [7]. - Inventory: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 9.00 tons on October 13, down 0.10 (- 1.1%); styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 19.65 tons, down 0.54 (- 2.7%) [7]. - Operating Rate: Asian pure benzene operating rate was 80.1% on October 9, up 1.1 (1.4%) from October 2; domestic pure benzene operating rate was 79.3%, up 0.6 (0.7%); domestic hydro - benzene operating rate was 63.2%, down 0.8 (- 1.2%); phenol operating rate was 78.0%, unchanged (0%); caprolactam operating rate was 96.0%, up 2.2 (2.3%); aniline operating rate was 77.2%, up 2.3 (3.0%); styrene operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.1 (- 0.1%); downstream PS operating rate was 54.6%, down 1.7 (- 3.0%); downstream EPS operating rate was 40.7%, down 2.4 (- 5.5%); downstream ABS operating rate was 71.0%, up 1.5 (2.1%) [7]. Group 4: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View For caustic soda, the spot trading is okay, and the overall price is stable with a slight decline. The demand from downstream alumina is average, so the caustic soda price is under pressure. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity change is limited, and the demand for alumina increment is also limited. In the context of supply - demand mismatch, the domestic spot price is expected to remain weak. There may be concentrated stocking in the fourth quarter of this year, and the short - term caustic soda price is weak, while the medium - and long - term has demand support. For PVC, the production enterprises' maintenance density has increased, and the supply pressure has been slightly relieved. The domestic and foreign trade exports are gradually recovering after the holiday, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure in the short term. The external macro - environment is not good, and the demand in the peak season is not obvious. The overall upstream willingness to hold goods has decreased, and the export has relieved some surplus pressure. The short - term PVC price is under pressure [8]. Summary by Directory - Price and Spread: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% was 2593.8 yuan/ton on October 13, up 46.9 (1.8%); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged (0%); East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price was 4610 yuan/ton, down 30 (- 0.6%); East China ethylene - based PVC market price was 4900 yuan/ton, unchanged (0%); SH2509 was 2614 yuan/ton, up 8 (0.3%); SH2601 was 2464 yuan/ton, down 6 (- 0.2%); SHITY was - 20.3 yuan/ton, up 38.9 (- 65.8%); SH2509 - 2601 was 150 yuan/ton, up 14 (10.3%); V2509 was 5175 yuan/ton, down 18 (- 0.3%); V2601 was 4721 yuan/ton, down 14 (- 0.3%); V24 was - 565 yuan/ton, down 12 (- 2.2%); V2509 - V2601 was 454 yuan/ton, down 4 (0.9%) [8]. - Inventory: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 19.7 tons on October 9, up 0.1 (0.3%); liquid caustic soda Shandong inventory was 11.1 tons, unchanged (0.1%); PVC upstream factory inventory was 38.4 tons, up 6.6 (20.5%); PVC total social inventory was 55.7 tons, up 2.2 (4.2%) [8]. - Operating Rate: Caustic soda industry operating rate was 88.2% on October 10, up 1.4 (1.6%); caustic soda Shandong sample operating rate was 86.0%, up 0.4 (0.5%); PVC total operating rate was 80.8%, up 4.7 (6.2%); external - procurement calcium carbide - based PVC profit was - 946 yuan/ton, down 50 (- 5.6%) [8]. Group 5: Polyester Industry Chain Investment Rating Not provided. Core View For PX, the domestic load is high, and the demand side has some support from PTA new device production expectations and short - term polyester load maintenance, but overall, the supply - demand in the fourth quarter is expected to be weak, and the price may fluctuate weakly in the short term. For PTA, due to low processing fees, there are expectations of plant maintenance and new device production. With loose spot circulation and weak cost support, the short - term price may fluctuate weakly. For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, with expected inventory accumulation in October and a weak far - month supply - demand structure. For short - fiber, the supply is high, and the demand is affected by tariffs, with weak supply - demand expectations. For bottle - chip, it is in the seasonal inventory accumulation period, and the processing fee may improve slightly in the short term [9]. Summary by Directory - Price and Spread: Brent crude oil (December) was $63.32 on October 13, up $0.59 (0.9%); WTI crude oil (November) was $58.90, up $0.59 (1%); CFR Japan naphtha was $567, down $10 (- 1.7%); CFR China MX was $679, down $6 (- 0.9%); CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was $785, unchanged (0%); POY150/48 price was 6690 yuan/ton, down 50 (- 0.8%); FDY150/96 price was 6740 yuan/ton, down 40 (- 0.6%); DTY150/48 price was 7800 yuan/ton, down 50 (- 0.6%); polyester chip price was 5704 yuan/ton, down 70 (- 1.2%); polyester bottle - chip price was 5650 yuan/ton, down 18 (- 0.3%); 1.4D direct - spinning short - fiber price was 6410 yuan/ton, down 15 (- 0.2%) [9]. - Inventory and Operating Rate: MEG port inventory was 54.1 tons on October 13, up 3.4 (6.7%); Asian PX operating rate was 79.9% on October 13, up 1.9 (2.4%); Chinese PX operating rate was 87.4%, up 0.7 (0.8%); PTA operating rate was 74.4%, down 2.4 (- 3.1%); MEG comprehensive operating rate was 75.1%, up 2.0 (2.7%); coal - based MEG operating rate was 78.8%, up 4.5 (6.0%); polyester bottle - chip operating rate was 72.4%, up 4.6 (6.8%); direct - spinning long - fiber operating rate was 93.8%, up 0.3 (0.3%); short - fiber operating rate was 94.3%, down 1.1 (- 1.2%); pure - polyester yarn operating rate was 64.7%, up 0.5 (0.8%) [9].
广发期货《能源化工》日报-20251014
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-10-14 06:38