贵金属上涨波动加剧，短期谨防流动性风险

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, due to uncertainties in Trump's policies and Sino - US trade negotiations, and the accumulation of short - position losses, the financial market's overall liquidity risk has risen, leading to more violent price fluctuations in precious metals. Investors are advised to participate cautiously on a single - side basis. For gold, they can buy lightly when the price is above the $4060 support level and set stop - profit and stop - loss points. For silver, maintain a long - position mindset when the price is above $50. In the long term, affected by the US government shutdown and fiscal and monetary policy turmoil in developed countries, investors' asset pricing systems will be reshaped, which is beneficial to precious metals with strong financial attributes, and precious metals are expected to have a bull market similar to that in the 1970s [8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Since October, due to trade frictions, tariffs, and geopolitical situations, institutional and individual funds have continuously flowed into precious metals for hedging, intensifying the liquidity shortage in the spot market. There have been significant rises and falls in the domestic and overseas precious metal markets. On the morning of October 14, the main Shanghai gold contract AU2512 once rose by more than 4.7% to a record high of 958 yuan/gram, and the main Shanghai silver contract AG2512 had a maximum increase of 7.6%. However, in the afternoon, the market dived, and the closing price of AU2512 was 938.98 yuan/gram, with a 2.7% increase; AG2512 closed at 11533 yuan/kilogram, with a 2.64% increase [1]. Driving Factors Market Risk - Aversion - Since October, the US government shutdown and political turmoil in many countries, combined with trade frictions, have increased the market's expectation of a recurrence of the global financial market turmoil in early April this year. Panic has increased the callback risk of risky assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies, and funds have flowed to safe - haven assets. Gold and silver, as safe - haven assets, have led the financial market, with continuous inflows of funds from central bank gold purchases to ETF holdings, driving the prices of gold and silver to new historical highs [2]. Silver Supply and Demand - In this round of precious metal price increases, international silver prices have risen more sharply, with the London silver spot price rising above the COMEX futures price, reflecting the depletion of physical spot liquidity. The 1 - month lending and leasing cost of London bank silver has reached an extreme level of 35%. Due to the large - scale short - selling of silver by European and American financial institutions through the derivatives market in the past, and the current increase in silver investment demand, the transportation of a large amount of London inventory to New York has tightened spot liquidity. With relatively backward miner supply, silver prices have been further pushed up. The domestic silver price has also lagged behind the overseas market, and the London lending and leasing rates, as well as the US COMEX inventory and the spot - futures price difference, will reflect whether the short - term supply shortage can be alleviated [5][7]. Future Outlook - Fundamentally, the risk of US economic recession has increased due to the impact of the government shutdown on the economy and the employment market. The Fed's policy of interest - rate cuts may strengthen, which will suppress the US dollar index. In the long - term, affected by the US government shutdown and fiscal and monetary policy turmoil in developed countries such as Europe and Japan, investors' asset pricing systems will be reshaped, which is beneficial to precious metals with strong financial attributes, and precious metals are expected to have a bull market similar to that in the 1970s. In extreme cases, the annual increase in the gold price may exceed 100% [8].