瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20251014

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - On Tuesday, the I2601 contract decreased with increasing positions. Due to tariff disturbances affecting market sentiment and the weak steel market, ore prices are under pressure. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward. The operation suggestion is to sell on rebounds, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the I main - contract is 782.00 yuan/ton, down 22.50 yuan; the holding volume is 499,799 lots, up 14,460 lots. The 1 - 5 contract spread is 21 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan; the net holding of the top 20 in the contract is - 13,543 lots, down 10,418 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt is 800.00 lots, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main - contract quote at 15:00 is 105.45 US dollars/ton, down 2.34 US dollars [2]. 2. Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 858 yuan/dry ton, down 9 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac ore at Qingdao Port is 850 yuan/dry ton, down 10 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special powder ore at Jingtang Port is 772 yuan/dry ton, down 9 yuan. The basis of the I main - contract (Mac powder dry ton - main contract) is 68 yuan, up 13 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 109.20 US dollars/ton, up 1.80 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac ore at Qingdao Port is 3.29, down 0.03. The estimated import cost is 891 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2]. 3. Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume (weekly) is 3,207.50 million tons, down 71.50 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 3,144.10 million tons, up 368.30 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 14,641.08 million tons, up 87.12 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 9,046.19 million tons, down 990.60 million tons. The monthly iron ore import volume is 11,632.60 million tons, up 1,110.60 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) are 26.00 days, up 1 day. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 39.20 million tons, down 0.16 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 62.54%, up 0.15%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 47.95 million tons, down 0.78 million tons. The BDI index is 2,144.00, up 208.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 25.20 US dollars/ton, up 1.64 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 9.82 US dollars/ton, up 0.20 US dollars [2]. 4. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 84.25%, down 0.02%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 90.53%, down 0.10%. The monthly domestic crude steel output is 7,737 million tons, down 229 million tons [2]. 5. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 17.19%, up 3.31%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 18.65%, up 1.30%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 20.88%, up 0.13%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 20.16%, down 0.25% [2]. 6. Industry News - From October 06 to October 12, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3,207.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71.5 million tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,731.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 94.9 million tons. The Australian shipping volume was 1,916.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63.6 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,584.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 76.7 million tons. The Brazilian shipping volume was 814.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31.3 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 3,144.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 368.3 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 3,045.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 437.1 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,423.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28.1 million tons [2].