瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20251014

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic methanol production has increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol plants may continue to rise. The inventory of inland enterprises has increased, but the inventory in the northwest region has decreased instead. The methanol port inventory has accumulated, and there is still a possibility of an increase in port inventory in October. The short - term industry operating rate may decline slightly, and the MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2260 - 2350 [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2274 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 26 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton. The main contract position is 1051360 lots, an increase of 59418 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures is - 146230 lots, a decrease of 30507 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 11282, unchanged [3]. 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2230 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2082.5 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 147.5 yuan/ton, down 72.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 44 yuan/ton. The CFR price of methanol in the Chinese main port is 264 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 326 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 272 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 62 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.1 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.03 US dollars/million British thermal units [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 108.05 tons, an increase of 4.78 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 46.27 tons, an increase of 0.32 tons. The import profit of methanol is 15.43 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 175.98 tons, an increase of 65.71 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 339400 tons, an increase of 19500 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 89.59%, an increase of 7.06 percentage points [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 34.11%, down 10.07 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 4.98%, down 2.22 percentage points; the operating rate of acetic acid is 82.96%, up 3.99 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 64.12%, down 0.11 percentage points; the operating rate of olefins is 93.19%, up 1.3 percentage points. The on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1020 yuan/ton, an increase of 113 yuan/ton [3]. 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 15.99%, up 3.45 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.83%, up 1.69 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options is 18.27%, up 2.23 percentage points [3]. 7. Industry News - As of October 9, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 33.94 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.08%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 11.52 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 57.79%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 154.32 tons, an increase of 5.10 tons. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 93.74%, a month - on - month increase of 4.49% [3].