苹果产业日报-20251014

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - New-season late-maturing Fuji apples are sporadically on the market. The opening prices of apples in the western producing areas are generally 0.3 - 1 yuan per jin higher than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the commodity rate. The prices of merchant goods reach 4.20 - 4.30 yuan per jin. High-quality goods in the Gansu producing area are basically pre - ordered, and the trading of ordinary goods is average, with prices determined by quality. Buyers are relatively active in purchasing high - quality goods, and prices are stable and firm. In the sales area market, apple trading is average, and there is no obvious improvement in sales during the double festivals. The delayed centralized listing of apples in the western producing areas not only shortens the acquisition time but may also lead to simultaneous concentrated supply in various producing areas. However, the potential decline in the high - quality fruit rate still supports the market in the short term. Attention should be paid to the quality of late - maturing Fuji apples after they are picked. In terms of operation, it is recommended to take a short - term long position on the Apple 2601 contract [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 8,664 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,474; the position of the main contract is 56,960 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 116,620 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,193 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 5 yuan per jin, with a week - on - week increase of 1; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) it is 2.3 yuan per jin, with no change; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial grade) it is 4.2 yuan per jin, with no change; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80 second - grade fruit farmer's goods) it is 3.7 yuan per jin, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 168.34 tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.69 yuan per kilogram, with a decrease of 0.08; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.34 yuan per kilogram, with an increase of 0.02. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 6.79 tons, with a decrease of 5.39; the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.01, with a decrease of 0.01; the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0, with no change. The monthly export volume of apples is 70,000 tons, with an increase of 20,000; the monthly export value is 6,973.9 million US dollars; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,589,295.5 million US dollars, with a decrease of 153,306.5 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.3 yuan per jin, with no change [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.09 yuan per kilogram, with an increase of 0.2; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.59 yuan per kilogram, with a decrease of 0.01; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 4.17 yuan per kilogram, with an increase of 0.16. The average daily early - morning arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 25.67 vehicles, with an increase of 10.67; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 32 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 45.33 vehicles, with an increase of 14.33 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 24.04%, with an increase of 0.59; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 24.03%, with an increase of 0.55 [2] Industry News - In Shaanxi, the rainfall has stopped, but apple picking by farmers is hindered. The redness of a small amount of traded goods is relatively light, and large - scale trading still needs to wait. The pre - ordering of high - quality goods is basically completed, prices are stable, the prices of ordinary goods are chaotic and slightly weak, and the principle of high - quality goods at high prices is obvious. In Shandong, the trading of late - maturing Fuji apples is not yet large - scale, the redness is relatively light, and large - scale trading still needs to wait. Some merchants have gone to the Liaoning producing area to purchase. Liaoning farmers are firm in their asking prices, and the current supply is limited [2]