瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For soda ash, supply is expected to be ample and demand to weaken. Without production - cut expectations, prices are likely to continue falling, but there may be variables due to "anti - involution" hype. It shows some signs of bottom - building, and short - term long positions on the soda ash main contract are recommended [2]. - For glass, prices are likely to oscillate upwards due to a small supply contraction, reduced inventory pressure, and policy expectations after the holiday, but the risk of lower - than - expected demand should be watched out for. It is currently at the bottom, and short - term long positions on the glass main contract are recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1234 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan), and glass main contract closing price is 1138 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan). The soda ash - glass price difference is 28 yuan/ton. Soda ash main contract open interest is 1384354 lots (up 5914 lots), and glass main contract open interest is 1409688 lots (down 267465 lots) [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net position is 122933, and glass top 20 net position is - 179438. Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 7882 tons (up 317 tons), and glass exchange warehouse receipts are 0 tons [2]. - The price difference between January and May soda ash contracts is - 87, and that of glass contracts is - 142 (down 8) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1150 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan), and Central China heavy soda ash is 1300 yuan/ton. East China light soda ash is 1250 yuan/ton, and Central China light soda ash is 1215 yuan/ton [2]. - Shahe glass large plates are 1132 yuan/ton (down 24 yuan), and Central China glass large plates are 1220 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 88.41% (down 0.76%), and float glass enterprise operating rate is 76.01%. Soda ash enterprise inventory is 168.46 tons (up 2.48 tons), and glass enterprise inventory is 6282.4 ten - thousand heavy boxes (up 346.9 ten - thousand heavy boxes) [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 16.07 million tons/year (up 0.05 million tons/year), and the number of in - production glass production lines is 225 (unchanged) [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Real estate new construction area cumulative value is 39801.01 ten - thousand square meters (up 4595.01 ten - thousand square meters), and real estate completion area cumulative value is 27693.54 ten - thousand square meters (up 2659.54 ten - thousand square meters) [2]. 3.5 Soda Ash Device Dynamic Tracking - Many soda ash devices have changes, such as Henan Zhongyuan Chemical reducing production and having first - phase maintenance, Hubei Shuanghuan starting production with increasing output, etc. Some devices are stable, while others are reducing or increasing load [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Soda ash supply is expected to increase in the Sichuan - Chongqing market as devices resume production, and market sentiment is cautious. The "anti - involution" policy may lead to the elimination of some backward soda ash production capacity, while natural - soda production capacity is rising [2]. - For glass, northern natural - gas - fueled production lines may have stronger cold - repair intentions due to rising natural - gas prices, and some environmentally non - compliant lines may face restrictions in October [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash is expected to have ample supply and weakening demand. It shows some bottom - building signs, and short - term long positions are recommended [2]. - Glass is likely to see price increases due to supply, inventory, and policy factors, but demand risks should be noted. It is still at the bottom, and short - term long positions are recommended [2].