宏观经济深度研究：货币政策跨境传导的美元渠道

Group 1: Monetary Policy Transmission - The traditional theory of monetary policy spillover is limited to interest rate differentials and trade competitiveness channels, which fail to fully explain capital flows driven by risk preferences[2] - The dollar channel is proposed as a significant supplement to monetary policy transmission, reflecting deeper changes in global risk preferences and financing environments[1] - Empirical evidence shows that a 1% appreciation of the dollar leads to an increase in U.S. leveraged loan spreads by 6 to 7 basis points, independent of traditional channels[3] Group 2: Impact of Dollar Appreciation - Dollar appreciation raises financing costs for U.S. companies, with high-risk loans being more sensitive to dollar fluctuations[6] - The increase in loan spreads due to dollar appreciation varies significantly, with high-risk loans seeing spreads increase from 7.1 basis points to 18.8 basis points as risk characteristics change[6] - The dollar channel amplifies the tightening effects of U.S. monetary policy, affecting both domestic and global financial conditions[7] Group 3: Global Financial Stability - The dollar channel serves as both a conduit for policy transmission and an amplifier of risk cycles, potentially limiting the independence of U.S. monetary policy[7] - Strong dollar conditions tighten global financial conditions, while a weak dollar can lead to capital inflows into emerging markets, creating new imbalances[7] - The dynamics of the dollar channel highlight the asymmetric and pro-cyclical nature of global financial cycles, complicating policy decisions for central banks[7]