燃料油早报-20251014

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core View - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated at a high level, the monthly spread of nearby months weakened, the basis oscillated at a low level, the EW spread weakened rapidly, the high - sulfur in the ARA region strengthened, and the FU internal - external spread oscillated between 8 - 10 US dollars. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded slightly but was at a historical low compared to the same period, the monthly spread was weakly sorted, the LU internal - external spread dropped to 7 - 9 US dollars, and the MF0.5 basis weakened. From the fundamental perspective, Singapore's residue oil inventory decreased (compared to a high level), floating storage decreased significantly, ARA residue oil inventory decreased at a historical low for the same period, EIA residue oil inventory slightly increased at a low level, Fujeirah slightly increased inventory (compared to a low level), and the Middle - East high - sulfur floating storage decreased significantly this week. Recently, the Singapore high - sulfur spot market has weakened, and the cracking is supported by raw material procurement, with limited short - term downward space. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain an oscillating pattern, and the FU internal - external spread should be viewed within a range. This week, the LU market was still weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas met expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis weakened again. In the fourth quarter, the LU internal - external spread can be expanded on dips, and attention should be paid to the quota usage [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, for Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, the price changed from 430.72 to 378.78, a decrease of 51.94; for Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, it changed from 393.32 to 408.50, an increase of 15.18; for Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, it changed from - 5.01 to - 3.49, an increase of 1.52; for Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, it changed from 675.28 to 630.08, a decrease of 45.2; for Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1, it changed from - 244.56 to - 221.58, an increase of 22.98; for LGO - Brent M1, it changed from 24.98 to 23.27, a decrease of 1.71; for Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1, it changed from 37.40 to 29.72, a decrease of 7.68 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, for Singapore 380cst M1, the price changed from 409.64 to 376.28, a decrease of 33.36; for Singapore 180cst M1, it changed from 418.64 to 382.83, a decrease of 35.81; for Singapore VLSFO M1, it changed from 477.13 to 443.88, a decrease of 33.25; for Singapore Gasoil M1, it changed from 90.86 to 84.47, a decrease of 6.39; for Singapore 380cst - Brent M1, it changed from - 3.88 to - 3.93, a decrease of 0.05; for Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1, it changed from - 195.23 to - 181.20, an increase of 14.03 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, for FOB 380cst, the price changed from 410.90 to 374.29, a decrease of 36.61; for FOB VLSFO, it changed from 477.90 to 438.87, a decrease of 39.03; the 380 basis changed from 0.95 to - 0.50, a decrease of 1.45; the high - sulfur internal - external spread changed from 8.8 to 9.8, an increase of 1; the low - sulfur internal - external spread changed from 10.8 to 5.8, a decrease of 5 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, for FU 01, the price changed from 2919 to 2737, a decrease of 182; for FU 05, it changed from 2852 to 2697, a decrease of 155; for FU 09, it changed from 2748 to 2644, a decrease of 104; for FU 01 - 05, it changed from 67 to 40, a decrease of 27; for FU 05 - 09, it changed from 104 to 53, a decrease of 51; for FU 09 - 01, it changed from - 171 to - 93, an increase of 78 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, for LU 01, the price changed from 3469 to 3226, a decrease of 243; for LU 05, it changed from 3423 to 3220, a decrease of 203; for LU 09, it changed from 3390 to 3208, a decrease of 182; for LU 01 - 05, it changed from 46 to 6, a decrease of 40; for LU 05 - 09, it changed from 33 to 12, a decrease of 21; for LU 09 - 01, it changed from - 79 to - 18, an increase of 61 [3].