甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251014

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Report Core Views - Methanol: The trading logic is the pressure transmission from ports to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but port backflow will impact the inland. Currently, the price is benchmarked against inland prices. Xingxing is expected to start operations in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Backflow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Valuation, inventory, and driving forces are average, so bottom - fishing should wait [2]. - Polyethylene: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw - material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other price differences are fluctuating. LD is weakening. September maintenance is flat month - on - month, and recent domestic linear production has decreased. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure in 2025 is significant [5]. - Polypropylene: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is - 60, non - standard price differences are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differences are neutral. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production is stable.拉丝 production is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average, and raw - material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to have a slightly excessive supply pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH device maintenance is frequent, supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - PVC: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream开工 is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Summer northwest device seasonal maintenance has a load center between spring maintenance and Q1 high production. In Q4, attention should be paid to production capacity realization and export sustainability. Near - end export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profit is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The export counter - offer for caustic soda is FOB380. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Current static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工 [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: The daily changes of methanol include 0 for动力煤期货, 72 for江苏现货, 75 for华南现货, - 12 for鲁南折盘面, 0 for西南折盘面, 0 for河北折盘面, 0 for西北折盘面, 0 for CFR中国, 0 for CFR东南亚, 0 for进口利润, 45 for主力基差, and 0 for other aspects [2]. Polyethylene - Price and Inventory Data: From September 29 to October 13, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene decreased from 815 to 785,华北LL decreased from 7100 to 6950,华东LL decreased from 7215 to 7150,华东LD remained at 9500 (except for a small increase on October 9),华东HD remained at 7350, LL美金 remained at 830 (except for a decrease to 820 on some days), LL美湾 decreased from 785 to 767,进口利润 remained at - 42,主力期货 decreased from 7181 to 6983,基差 remained at - 50 (except for - 40 on October 9),两油库存 increased from 56 to 86 and then remained at 85, and仓单 decreased from 12736 to 12729 [5]. Polypropylene - Price and Inventory Data: From September 29 to October 13, 2025,山东丙烯 decreased from 6370 to 6200,东北亚丙烯 remained at 750,华东PP decreased from 6735 to 6635,华北PP decreased from 6750 to 6620,山东粉料 decreased from 6700 to 6570,华东共聚 decreased from 7002 to 6916, PP美金 remained at 840 (except for a decrease to 835 on some days), PP美湾 remained at 925,出口利润 remained at - 33,主力期货 decreased from 6903 to 6693,基差 increased from - 160 to - 90,两油库存 increased from 56 to 86 and then remained at 85, and仓单 decreased from 14098 to 13970 [6]. PVC - Price and Profit Data: From September 29 to October 13, 2025,西北电石 decreased from 2550 to 2450,山东烧碱 increased from 807 to 850,电石法 - 华东 decreased from 4780 to 4640,乙烯法 - 华东 remained at 5500,电石法 - 华南 remained at 5450,电石法 - 西北 decreased from 4400 to 4370,进口美金价 (CFR中国) remained at 700,出口利润 remained at 362,西北综合利润 remained at 356,华北综合利润 remained at - 244, and基差 (高端交割品) remained at - 150 (except for - 120 on some days) [6].