建信期货多晶硅日报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The polycrystalline silicon main contract price showed a weak and volatile trend. The PS2511 closed at 48,740 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.35%. The spot price remained stagnant, and there was a lack of potential policy benefits. The average price of N-type polycrystalline silicon re-feeding materials was 51,800 yuan/ton, and the futures price was approaching the dense material price. Under the impact of macro risks, the futures price dropped to the bottom of the range again. Since late September, policy implementation focused on production control and new energy consumption standards, with no more aggressive short - term policies. The improvement in supply - demand was slow, and market expectations shifted. It was expected to continue the weak operation within the range after the discount, but overall showed a stalemate. The monthly production on the supply side was expected to remain at around 130,000 tons, while domestic terminal installations had declined rapidly in recent months, foreign demand remained stable, and the long - term demand weakness pressure might be transmitted upstream [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The polycrystalline silicon main contract price was weakly volatile. The PS2511 closed at 48,740 yuan/ton with a 2.35% decline, the trading volume was 246,976 lots, the holding volume was 87,665 lots, and the net reduction was 3,344 lots [4]. - Future Outlook: The spot price was stagnant, and policy potential benefits were insufficient. The average price of N - type polycrystalline silicon re - feeding materials was 51,800 yuan/ton, and the futures price was approaching the dense material price. After late - September, policy implementation was on production control and new energy consumption standards, with no short - term aggressive policies. Supply - demand improvement was slow, market expectations shifted. It was expected to continue weak operation within the range after discount but remain stalemated. The monthly supply was expected to be around 130,000 tons, domestic terminal installations declined rapidly, foreign demand was stable, and long - term demand weakness pressure might transmit upstream [4]. 3.2. Market News - On October 13th, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 7,900 lots, a decrease of 240 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - As of October 10th, the polycrystalline silicon inventory was 253,900 tons, a weekly increase of 4.83% and a year - on - year increase of 8.60% [5]. - Four departments planned to accelerate the establishment of recycling standards for retired photovoltaic and wind power equipment, improve battery disassembly and recycling technology, and explore the establishment of an energy - storage battery recycling system [5].