建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251014

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: October 14, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The current supply-demand imbalance in the polyolefin market continues to suppress prices. Although some upstream enterprises have increased maintenance due to lower-than-expected peak-season demand, the expected reduction in maintenance losses from September to November and new capacity planned for the fourth quarter will keep supply pressure high. After the holiday, social inventories have increased, and while there is still some demand resilience in October, new orders are limited, making it difficult to reduce inventories. With the upward revision of crude oil supply expectations and potential accelerated inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, cost support is weak, and polyolefins are under pressure [6]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Outlook - LLDPE L2601 opened lower, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 6,983 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton (-0.98%), with a trading volume of 280,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 6,917 lots to 564,785 lots. PP2601 closed at 6,693 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan (-0.61%), with an increase in open interest of 8,393 lots to 643,300 lots. Linear futures opened lower and fluctuated, dampening trading sentiment. Traders' quotes continued to weaken, and downstream buyers mainly purchased on demand with a cautious attitude [6]. 2. Industry News - On October 13, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 840,000 tons, a 20,000-ton increase (2.44%) from the previous working day, compared to 880,000 tons in the same period last year. - The PE market price declined weakly. The LLDPE price in North China was 6,980 - 7,250 yuan/ton, in East China was 7,050 - 7,600 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,200 - 7,680 yuan/ton. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 6,200 - 6,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Downstream products faced cost pressure, and with the decline in propylene prices, downstream factories were cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak overall demand. Producers mainly sold at discounted prices, and the quoted price decline was relatively significant. - The PP market continued to decline, with some prices dropping by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. Futures fluctuated narrowly with significant upward resistance, further increasing market concerns. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6,550 - 6,620 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,550 - 6,680 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,530 - 6,680 yuan/ton [7][8]. 3. Data Overview - Not summarized in detail as only data sources and chart names are provided [11][12][14][15][16][17][18]