LPG早报-20251015

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint The current PG basis is high, FEI and CP valuations are low. The Sino - US tariff truce agreement will expire on November 10th. With low inventory pressure, abundant supply, strong chemical demand support, and gradually warming combustion demand, the improvement of PDH profit may lead to the purchase demand for CP goods. The report suggests paying attention to narrowing PDH profit, but also warns of the risk of the low - opening of the end - of - month CP official price [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Changes - On October 14, 2025, civil gas prices declined in different regions: in East China to 4383 (-3), in Shandong to 4440 (-10), and in South China to 4530 (-30). The price of ether - post carbon four remained at 4480 (+0). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 240 (-6), and the November - December spread was 150 (-43). FEI and CP decreased to 465 (-20) and 449 (-22) dollars/ton respectively [1]. - The PG futures price dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4384 (+21); Shandong was at 4450 (-100), and South China was at 4570 (-70). The basis was 314 (+188), and the November - December spread was 78 [1]. Weekly Viewpoint - The South China arrival discount was 52. Freight rates dropped significantly: from the US Gulf to Japan to 126 (-5), and from the Middle East to the Far East to 63 (-5.5). The FEI - MOPJ spread widened significantly to -83 (-28) [1]. - Some enterprises such as Weilian Chemical, Lihuayi Weiyuan, and Tianjin Bohua stopped production, and Zhongjing is expected to resume next week. The PDH plant operating rate was 70.88% (-1.64pct), and the PDH - to - propylene spot gross profit was +0. Warehouse receipts were cancelled to zero in September. The October CP official price opened low at 495/475, the lowest in two years, 40 - 60 dollars lower than expected [1]. - The FEI monthly spread was -15 dollars (-8.5), and the CP monthly spread was -8.75 dollars (+0.25). The internal - external price difference PG - CP reached 108 (+3); PG - FEI reached 101 (+13). FEI - CP was 7.5 (-10). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. The AFEI discount was -18.75, and the CP changed little; the profit of producing PP rebounded from a low level [1].