Group 1: Report Information - Report date: October 15, 2025 [2] - Report team: Research Center's Agricultural Products Team [2] Group 2: Corn and Starch Price Data | Location | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 | 2025/10/14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn - Changchun | 2230 | 2110 | 1980 | 1970 | 1970 | 0 | | Corn - Jinzhou | 2190 | 2130 | 2120 | 2100 | 2080 | -20 | | Corn - Weifang | 2264 | 2150 | 2140 | 2130 | 2120 | -10 | | Corn - Shekou | 2440 | 2410 | 2380 | 2340 | 2310 | -30 | | Corn - Basis | 47 | -8 | -5 | 8 | -13 | -21 | | Corn - Trade Profit | 115 | 145 | 125 | 105 | 90 | -15 | | Corn - Import Profit | 306 | 290 | 262 | 223 | 216 | -7 | | Starch - Heilongjiang | 2750 | 2750 | 2750 | 2750 | 2750 | 0 | | Starch - Weifang | 2850 | 2850 | 2850 | 2800 | 2800 | 0 | | Starch - Basis | 237 | 225 | 223 | 254 | 270 | 16 | | Starch - Processing Profit | 9 | 86 | 96 | 126 | - | - | [3] Market Analysis - Corn: New - season corn has been listed. Short - term prices will be weak due to concentrated supply. Mid - to long - term, focus on the game between farmers and traders. With increased production and lower costs, prices are approaching cost. Low prices and good quality may trigger farmers' resistance to selling, leading to a price rebound [4]. - Starch: After the holiday, raw material prices are down, but starch price adjustment is limited due to high production costs. Short - term, lower raw material prices and rising inventory will suppress starch prices. Mid - to long - term, price drops may stimulate downstream replenishment and support prices [4]. Group 3: Sugar Price Data | Location | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 | 2025/10/14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Sugar - Liuzhou | 5890 | 5870 | 5870 | 5850 | 5850 | 0 | | Sugar - Nanning | 5780 | 5800 | 5800 | 5800 | 5810 | 10 | | Sugar - Kunming | 5810 | 5820 | 5820 | - | 5780 | - | | Sugar - Liuzhou Basis | 397 | 342 | 374 | 380 | 453 | 73 | | Sugar - Thai Import Profit | 232 | 160 | 202 | - | - | - | | Sugar - Brazilian Import Profit | 414 | 341 | 384 | - | - | - | | Sugar - Zhengzhou Warehouse Receipts | 8968 | 8898 | 8867 | 8681 | 8488 | -193 | [5] Market Analysis - International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's peak crushing season. Brazil's yield and sugar - extraction rate are low, and the sugar - making ratio is high, increasing production uncertainty. The domestic market follows the international market, with imported sugar arriving and downward pressure on prices [5]. Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Data | Indicator | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 | 2025/10/14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton - 3128 | 14545 | 14500 | 14500 | 14450 | 14425 | -25 | | Cotton - Imported M - grade US Cotton | 75.2 | 74.6 | 74.2 | 73.6 | 73.4 | - | | Cotton - CotlookA(FE) | 76.9 | 76.6 | 76.1 | 75.3 | - | - | | Cotton - Import Profit | 1059 | 1063 | 1152 | 1214 | - | - | | Cotton - Warehouse Receipts + Forecast | 3103 | 3041 | 2970 | 2898 | 2875 | -23 | | Cotton Yarn - Vietnamese Yarn Spot | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 0 | | Cotton Yarn - Vietnamese Yarn Import Profit | 267 | 200 | 219 | 205 | 203 | -2 | | Cotton Yarn - 32S Spinning Profit | -507 | -465 | -465 | -412 | -386 | 26 | [16] Market Analysis - Cotton is in a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. Without major macro - risks, the April low may be the long - term bottom. Downside is limited, and focus on demand changes [6]. Group 5: Eggs Price Data | Location | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 - 14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Eggs - Hebei | 3.40 | 3.00 | 2.89 | 2.78 | 0.00 | | Eggs - Liaoning | 3.33 | 2.93 | 2.82 | 2.71 | 0.00 | | Eggs - Shandong | 3.45 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.60 | 0.00 | | Eggs - Henan | 3.45 | 2.85 | 2.85 | 2.60 | 0.00 | | Eggs - Hubei | 3.53 | 3.02 | 2.93 | 2.70 | 0.05 | | Eggs - Basis | 731 | 420 | 461 | 245 | -113.00 | | Eggs - White - feather Broiler | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.38 | -0.02 | | Eggs - Yellow - feather Broiler | 3.65 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.35 | 0.00 | | Eggs - Pigs | 19.31 | 18.64 | 18.85 | 18.48 | 0.01 | [12] Market Analysis - Before the holiday, there was high uncertainty about holiday consumption and post - holiday restocking. Spot prices dropped 12.5% during the holiday, and the futures market declined after the holiday. In the short term, supply is high, demand is seasonally low, and prices are expected to be weak. Focus on the pace of culling hens, which can support prices [12]. Group 6: Apples Price Data | Indicator | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 | 2025/10/14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apples - Shandong 80 First and Second - grade | 7500.00 | 7500.00 | 7500.00 | 7500.00 | 7500.00 | 0.00 | | Apples - Shaanxi 70 Common | - | - | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 0.00 | | Apples - 1 - month Basis | -1117.00 | -1133.00 | -1244.00 | -1138.00 | -1164.00 | -26.00 | | Apples - 5 - month Basis | -933.00 | -1022.00 | -1175.00 | -1127.00 | -1161.00 | -34.00 | | Apples - 10 - month Basis | -1688.00 | -1680.00 | -1675.00 | -1650.00 | -1700.00 | -50.00 | [12][13] Market Analysis - In the new season, apples in the western region are being bag - removed, and those in Shandong are delayed due to rain. Production in the west may increase slightly, but tree - felling is a problem. Shandong may see a 20% reduction. Overall, production is similar to last year, and quality is affected in some areas. The average opening price is above 3.5 yuan/jin [13]. Group 7: Pigs Price Data | Location | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 | 2025/10/14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Pigs - Henan Kaifeng | 12.43 | 11.28 | 11.18 | 10.93 | 10.98 | 0.05 | | Pigs - Hubei Xiangyang | 12.30 | 11.25 | 11.05 | 10.80 | 10.80 | 0.00 | | Pigs - Shandong Linyi | 12.67 | 11.67 | 11.27 | 10.97 | 11.07 | 0.10 | | Pigs - Anhui Hefei | 12.95 | 11.70 | 11.30 | 11.25 | 11.30 | 0.05 | | Pigs - Jiangsu Nantong | 13.00 | 11.75 | 11.30 | 11.30 | 11.35 | 0.05 | | Pigs - Basis | 75 | -315 | -140 | -195 | -470 | -275.00 | [13] Market Analysis - Releasing short - term pressure may strengthen policy expectations for a production inflection point next year. Short - term rebounds due to low prices are possible, but mid - term supply pressure remains due to insufficient capacity reduction. Short - term supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and prices are at new lows. Focus on the pace of slaughter, diseases, and policies [13]
农产品早报-20251015
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-10-15 00:59