芳烃橡胶早报-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - end TA maintenance has been implemented, the start - up has slightly declined, the polyester load has increased month - on - month, the inventory has slightly accumulated, and the basis has remained weak. The domestic PX start - up has increased, overseas plants have also restarted, and the PXN has widened month - on - month. There may be additional load reduction and production plans for TA, but considering the lack of more - than - expected performance of polyester, the far - month inventory accumulation is expected, and the far - month processing fee is relatively reasonable after the valuation repair month - on - month. Attention should be paid to additional maintenance situations [1]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic oil - based start - up has remained stable, the coal - based has restarted, and the overall load has increased to a high level. There is some maintenance overseas. The port inventory has significantly accumulated at the beginning of next week due to the increase in arrivals during the holiday and the dull shipment. The basis has slightly strengthened, and the benefit ratio has further shrunk. The industry has entered a continuous inventory accumulation stage, but there may be some negative feedback on the supply side after the coal - based benefit and ratio weaken. Attention should be paid to the support of coal - based costs [4]. - For polyester staple fiber, the short - term Xinjiang Jianshanli has been under maintenance, Zhejiang Huaxing has increased its load, the start - up has decreased to 94.3%, the production and sales have weakened month - on - month, and the inventory has accumulated month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up of the polyester yarn end has remained stable, the raw material inventory has decreased, the finished product inventory has remained stable month - on - month, and the benefit has been weak. The load - increasing speed of the polyester yarn end may slow down due to the high - level finished product inventory, but the start - up of short - fiber spot remains high due to good benefits, and the inventory pressure is limited. The processing fee is expected to fluctuate [4]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory has remained stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber has remained stable. The strategy is to wait and see [4]. - For styrene and its downstream products, the prices of related products have changed to different degrees, and the production profits of some products have also changed. The start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS have also shown different trends [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Price and Spread Changes: From September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, the price of PTA has changed, such as the domestic PTA spot price has decreased from 6650 to 6520, and the PX - naphtha spread has also changed [1]. - Load and Inventory Situation: The near - end TA maintenance has been implemented, the start - up has slightly declined, the polyester load has increased month - on - month, and the inventory has slightly accumulated [1]. MEG - Price and Profit Changes: From September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, the price of MEG has decreased, and the profit has also changed. For example, the MEG domestic price has decreased from 4275 to 4145, and the profit has decreased from 128 to 54 [4]. - Load and Inventory Situation: The near - end domestic oil - based start - up has remained stable, the coal - based has restarted, and the overall load has increased to a high level. The port inventory has significantly accumulated at the beginning of next week [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Inventory Changes: The spot price of polyester staple fiber has decreased, the production and sales have weakened month - on - month, and the inventory has accumulated month - on - month. The demand - side finished product inventory has remained stable month - on - month, and the benefit has been weak [4]. - Start - up Situation: The start - up has decreased to 94.3% due to short - term maintenance and load - increasing of some plants [4]. Natural Rubber - Price and Inventory Changes: The prices of various types of natural rubber have changed, and the national explicit inventory has remained stable. The price of Thai cup rubber has remained stable [4]. - Strategy: The strategy is to wait and see [4]. Styrene and Its Downstream Products - Price and Profit Changes: The prices of styrene and its downstream products such as pure benzene, EPS, ABS, and PS have changed, and the production profits of domestic products have also changed [4]. - Start - up Situation: The start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS have shown different trends [4].