沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - 沪镍: The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to adopt a wide - range shock strategy and try shorting on price increases for the 2511 contract [2]. - 不锈钢: The 2512 contract is expected to operate in a wide - range shock around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Price Information - 镍 and 不锈钢 price overview: On October 14, the price of Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,830, down 580 from the previous day; the price of London Nickel was 15,105, down 75; the price of stainless steel main contract was 12,565, down 90. Spot prices also generally declined [13]. - 镍 import cost: The import price was converted to 121,626 yuan/ton [29]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - 沪镍 fundamentals: The external market continued to decline slightly, with strong resistance at the 20 - day moving average. Nickel ore prices were firm, and the rainy season in the Philippines was approaching. Nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and stainless steel inventories increased during the National Day. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the demand for nickel from ternary batteries was limited. The long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged [2]. - 不锈钢 fundamentals: Spot stainless steel prices fell. In the short term, nickel ore prices and shipping costs were firm, nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and stainless steel inventories increased [4]. 3.3. Basis Analysis - 沪镍 basis: The spot price was 122,100, and the basis was 1,270, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - 不锈钢 basis: The average stainless steel price was 13,725, and the basis was 1,160, indicating a bullish signal [4]. 3.4. Inventory Analysis - 镍 inventory: As of October 14, LME inventory was 243,258, an increase of 1,164; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 25,027, a decrease of 245 [2][16]. - 不锈钢 inventory: As of October 10, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.0536 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 77,700 tons. As of October 14, the futures warehouse receipts were 84,497, a decrease of 669 [20][21]. 3.5. Price of Raw Materials - 镍 ore and nickel iron prices: On October 14, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 947 yuan/nickel point, down 4.5; the price of low - nickel (below 2) was 3,350 yuan/ton, down 50 [24]. - 不锈钢 production cost: The traditional cost was 13,027, the scrap steel production cost was 13,237, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost was 16,800 [26]. 3.6. Multi - and Short - Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Fed rate - cut expectations, anti - involution policies, firm ore prices with cost support at 120,000 [7]. - Bearish factors: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production with no new demand growth points, a year - on - year decline in ternary battery loading volume [7].