棉花早报-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for the cotton market is bearish, with factors such as expected supply increases, weak export performance, and a bearish trend in the market. However, the positive basis is a bullish factor. The report suggests a short - selling strategy on rallies for the main 01 contract [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Hints - Fundamentals: Multiple institutions have different forecasts for cotton production, consumption, and inventory in the 25/26 season. For example, the ICAC 9 - month report predicts a production and consumption of 2550 million tons; the USDA 9 - month report predicts a production of 2562.2 million tons and consumption of 2587.2 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were 244.2 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In August, China's cotton imports were 7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, while cotton yarn imports were 13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14755, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1490, showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture predicts an ending inventory of 822 million tons in the 25/26 season in October, which is bearish [4]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, but the overall position is still bearish, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - Expectations: The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is ending, the market is sluggish, and new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, increasing supply expectations. Trump's tariff - increasing remarks have resurfaced, and US cotton continues to decline. The rebound of the main 01 contract is weak, with an expectation of further decline [4]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast: In the 25/26 season, the global cotton production is expected to be 2562.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23 million tons; consumption is expected to be 2587.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.4 million tons; ending inventory is expected to be 1592.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.8 million tons [9][10]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 25/26 season, global production is 2.590 million tons, an increase of 40 million tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.560 million tons, basically flat; ending inventory is 1.710 million tons, an increase of 26 million tons (+1.6%); global trade volume is 970 million tons, an increase of 36 million tons (+3.9%) [11]. - Ministry of Agriculture Data: In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is 636 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and ending inventory is 822 million tons [4][13]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report