沪锌期货早报-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc ZN2511 is expected to oscillate weakly. The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc decline in an oscillating manner, with shrinking trading volume and both long and short positions reducing, but more short - positions being cut. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, the short - term KDJ indicator is declining and operating in the strong area, the trend indicator is declining, and the short - side strength is dominant [2][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamentals - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons [2]. 2. Basis - The spot price was 22,270, and the basis was + 50, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory - On October 14, LME zinc inventory increased by 1,125 tons to 38,600 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 1,120 tons to 58,494 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. 4. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (October 15) - For different delivery months, there were various price changes, trading volumes, and position changes. For example, for the 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 22,285, the opening price was 22,330, the closing price was 22,220, down 65, with a trading volume of 124,307 lots and an open interest of 95,194 lots, a decrease of 6,505 lots [3]. 5. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (October 14) - Zinc concentrate in Binzhou was priced at 17,360 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; zinc ingot was 22,270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet was 3,978 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; galvanized pipe was 4,391 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,760 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; zinc powder in Changsha was 27,520 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; and secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou was 7,790 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 6. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (2025/9/25 - 2025/10/13) - The total inventory on October 13 was 153,500 tons, an increase of 25,100 tons compared to September 29 and 17,400 tons compared to October 9 [5]. 7. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (October 14) - The total warrant was 58,494 tons, a decrease of 1,120 tons. There were different changes in warrants in various regions, such as a decrease of 99 tons in Shanghai and 1,021 tons in Tianjin [6]. 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics (October 14) - The inventory was 38,600 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons, with registered warrants of 24,200 tons,注销 warrants of 14,400 tons, and a cancellation ratio of 37.31% [7]. 9. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary (October 14) - Zinc concentrate with a 50% grade in different regions had prices ranging from 17,060 to 17,360 yuan/ton, all up 10 yuan/ton [9]. 10. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes (October 14) - The price of 0 zinc ingots (≥99.995%) from different smelters ranged from 21,910 to 23,330 yuan/ton, mostly up 10 yuan/ton, except for Gansu Baiyin Non - ferrous, which was up 350 yuan/ton [13]. 11. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - The planned production in September was 506,800 tons, the actual production was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The planned production in October was 509,600 tons [15]. 12. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (October 14) - For domestic 50% grade zinc concentrate, the processing fees in different regions ranged from 3,000 to 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and for imported 48% grade, it was 105 US dollars/kiloton [17]. 13. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (October 14) - In the zn2511 contract, for trading volume, the total trading volume of 20 members was 204,762 lots, down 78,944 lots; for long positions, the total was 66,347 lots, down 3,046 lots; for short positions, the total was 63,954 lots, down 4,443 lots [18].