PTA、MEG早报-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: After the holiday, the spot market trading atmosphere was average, and the spot basis weakened slightly. Some PTA device maintenance and production cuts, combined with the delay of new device commissioning, improved the supply - demand outlook. It is expected that the short - term spot price will still fluctuate mainly following the cost side. Attention should be paid to device changes and downstream production and sales [5]. - MEG: This week, the arrival at the main port of ethylene glycol is still high, and it is expected that the port inventory will still rise at the beginning of next week. In October, the supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol turned to inventory accumulation, with an overall increase of about 50,000 tons, and there is continuous inventory accumulation pressure in the far - month. The market sentiment is under obvious pressure. It is expected that the short - term ethylene glycol market will operate weakly. Attention should be paid to external and device changes [8]. - Overall: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored for the market rebound [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2. Daily Hints - PTA - Fundamental: Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and declined. The spot market trading atmosphere was average, and the spot basis weakened. The trading was mainly among traders. The price negotiation range for October goods was around 4,340 - 4,425, and the current mainstream spot basis is 01 - 82 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,385, and the 01 contract basis is - 55, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.22 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 days [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: Net short position, with short positions increasing [6]. - MEG - Fundamental: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated and weakened, and the market trading was average. The night - session of ethylene glycol declined, and the buying sentiment was average. The intraday market continued to be weak, with the low - level spot transactions around 4,110 - 4,115 yuan/ton, and the spot basis moderately weakened [8]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,150, and the 01 contract basis is 89, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 445,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,800 tons [9]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [9]. - Main Position: Net short position, with short positions decreasing [8]. 3.3. Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity showed an increasing trend, with the production capacity reaching 9.472 billion tons in December 2025. The production capacity utilization rate and production volume also fluctuated. The demand from polyester also showed an upward trend, and the inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio also changed accordingly [14]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the total production and supply of ethylene glycol showed an increasing trend, and the demand from polyester also increased. The port inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio also changed over time [15]. 3.5. Impact Factor Summary - Positive Factors - Before the holiday, driven by the rebound in demand and oil prices, the polyester market sales were booming. The inventory of POY and FDY in the pre - spinning of filament yarns quickly decreased to about half a month, and the prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, the polyester prices were stable [10]. - Some PTA device maintenance and production cuts, combined with the delay of new device commissioning [11]. - Negative Factors - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently gradually increasing its production to over 90%, and this device reduced its load around October 7 [12].