大越期货油脂早报-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic is centered around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main bullish factor is that the US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The main bearish factors are that the prices of oils and fats are historically high, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [2] - The basis of soybean oil is 180, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish. The commercial inventory of soybean oil on August 22 was 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is bearish. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. The short positions of the main soybean oil contract are increasing, which is bearish. It is expected that soybean oil Y2601 will fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2] Daily Views - Palm Oil - The MPOB report for August shows a decrease in Malaysian palm oil production, exports, and inventory. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [3] - The basis of palm oil is - 70, with the spot price lower than the futures price, which is bearish. The port inventory of palm oil on August 22 was 580,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is bullish. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. The long positions of the main palm oil contract are decreasing, which is bullish. It is expected that palm oil P2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500 [3] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - The MPOB report indicates a decrease in Malaysian palm oil production, exports, and inventory in August. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [4] - The basis of rapeseed oil is 201, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish. The commercial inventory of rapeseed oil on August 22 was 560,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is bearish. The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish. The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing, which is bullish. It is expected that rapeseed oil OI2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish factor: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]