大越期货沪铜早报-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side of copper has some disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In September, manufacturing production accelerated, and the PMI rose to 49.8%, with the business climate continuing to improve. The copper price is expected to remain strong due to inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances, such as the incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply - side disturbances exist with smelting production cuts and relaxed scrap copper policy. September manufacturing PMI reached 49.8%, showing improved business climate; assessment is neutral [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 85940, basis is 1530, indicating a premium over futures; assessment is bullish [2]. - Inventory: On October 14, copper inventory decreased by 550 to 138800 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 14656 tons to 109690 tons compared to last week; assessment is neutral [2]. - Market Chart: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising; assessment is bullish [2]. - Main Position: Main net long positions are held, but long positions are decreasing; assessment is bullish [2]. - Expectation: Inventory is rising, and geopolitical disturbances remain. The incident at the Indonesian Grasberg Block Cave mine is intensifying, and the copper price will maintain its strength [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Positive Factors: Global policy easing [3]. - Likely Negative Factors: Escalation of trade wars [3]. Inventory - Exchange Inventory: On October 14, copper inventory decreased by 550 to 138800 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 14656 tons to 109690 tons compared to last week [2]. - Bonded Area Inventory: Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - Processing fees are falling [16]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is in a tight - balance state [20]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, consumption, and balance data from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12060000 tons, imports are 3730000 tons, exports are 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and the supply - demand balance is a surplus of 110000 tons [22].