白糖早报-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand situation in the 25/26 season, with most predicting an oversupply. The current trend of Zhengzhou sugar shows an accelerating bottom - seeking situation. With new sugar about to be massively launched and the peak consumption season over, the short - term trend will continue to be weak, showing a wave - like decline, and there may be small rebounds after sharp drops [4][5][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 277 million tons. ISO estimated a supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, China produced 11.1621 billion tons of sugar in the 24/25 season, sold 10 billion tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 60,000 tons year - on - year, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a decrease of 155,700 tons year - on - year. This is bearish [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,850 yuan, with a basis of 453 yuan (for the 01 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [5]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [5]. - Expectation: Zhengzhou sugar is accelerating to find the bottom. New sugar is about to be launched in large quantities, and the peak consumption season has passed. The short - term trend will continue to be weak, with the market falling three steps and rebounding two steps, showing a wave - like decline. There may be small rebounds after sharp drops [5]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply - Demand Forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a supply gap of about 200,000 tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 277 million tons; Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 620 - 750 million tons; Datagro predicts a surplus of 153 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 420 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a surplus of 40 million tons; Green Pool predicts a surplus of 115 million tons [36]. - China's Sugar Market Data: In 2025, China's sugar - producing area data shows that the sown area, harvested area, and unit yield of sugarcane and beet are stable. The predicted sugar production in 2025/26 is 11.2 billion tons, imports are 5 billion tons, consumption is 15.9 billion tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [38]. - Import Data: In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 60,000 tons year - on - year, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a decrease of 155,700 tons year - on - year [4][9]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [5].