Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various non - ferrous metals, each with its own market situation, influencing factors, and investment strategies. For copper, maintain a buy - on - dips approach; for aluminum, hold on dips in the long - term; for zinc, suggest waiting and seeing; for nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak; for stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak; for lead, expect high - level oscillations; for tin, suggest waiting and seeing in the short - term and holding on dips in the long - term; for industrial silicon, expect price oscillations at the cycle bottom; for lithium carbonate, price elasticity is high after supply - side disturbances [1][2][4]. Summary by Metal Copper - Market Data: From September 30 - October 14, the spot price of Shanghai - copper decreased by 30, the spread between waste and refined copper remained unchanged, and the inventory of SHFE increased by 3405 [1]. - Market Analysis: Affected by Trump's tariff announcement, LME copper dropped 4.5% on Friday. The impact of this tariff conflict is expected to be less than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The smelting reduction exceeded expectations, and there was medium - level inventory accumulation this week. After the price drop on Friday, the volume of price - setting and receiving goods is expected to increase, driving inventory reduction. Copper cable and aluminum cable construction are diverging [1]. - Investment Strategy: Maintain a buy - on - dips approach, pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually establishing virtual inventory [1]. Aluminum - Market Data: From September 30 - October 14, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots increased by 90, the domestic alumina price decreased by 5, and the inventory of SHFE remained unchanged [1]. - Market Analysis: The operating capacity is increasing slightly, the production schedule of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum has rebounded significantly in September. Due to the holiday effect, there was seasonal inventory accumulation. The global economic recovery is showing signs, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation is strengthening, but Sino - US economic and trade relations are uncertain, leading to a divergence in domestic and foreign market trends [1]. - Investment Strategy: The short - term fundamentals are acceptable. Keep an eye on terminal demand and hold on dips in the long - term [1]. Zinc - Market Data: From September 30 - October 14, the spot price of Shanghai zinc increased by 10, and the social inventory remained unchanged. The LME zinc inventory decreased [2]. - Market Analysis: This week, the domestic zinc price fluctuated and rose. The domestic TC decreased, and the imported TC increased. In the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, domestic zinc ore will be tighter, while overseas ore production increased significantly in the second quarter. In October, smelting capacity recovered slightly. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The domestic social inventory is oscillating, and the LME inventory is decreasing [2]. - Investment Strategy: Due to the poor domestic fundamentals and the opening of the export window, it is recommended to wait and see. For the domestic - foreign spread, gradually take profits on the long - domestic - short - foreign spread and look for opportunities in the far - month reverse spread. For the inter - month spread, pay attention to the long - December - short - February spread [2]. Nickel - Market Data: From September 30 - October 14, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 450 [3]. - Market Analysis: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the domestic inventory is stable while the overseas inventory is increasing. The Indonesian parade has subsided, but there are still disturbances in the Indonesian ore market [4]. - Investment Strategy: No specific strategy provided in the report. Stainless Steel - Market Data: From September 30 - October 14, the prices of 304 cold - rolled and hot - rolled coils decreased by 100, and the price of waste stainless steel decreased by 50 [9]. - Market Analysis: In October, steel mill production increased slightly. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel - iron and chromium - iron are stable. There was inventory accumulation during the holiday in Xijiao and Foshan, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9]. - Investment Strategy: No specific strategy provided in the report. Lead - Market Data: From September 30 - October 14, the spot premium decreased by 5, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 100,000 tons [13][14]. - Market Analysis: This week, the lead price rose due to macro - factors. The scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the recovery of scrap lead production is expected to increase by 30,000 tons in October. The demand for batteries may weaken after the National Day. The refined - scrap spread is - 25, and the lead ingot spot is at a discount of 10 [14]. - Investment Strategy: It is expected that the domestic and foreign lead prices will oscillate at a high level next week, in the range of 17,000 - 17,400 [14]. Tin - Market Data: From September 30 - October 14, the tin position decreased by 1121 [17]. - Market Analysis: This week, the tin price increased due to macro - factors. The domestic smelting capacity has been reduced, and the overseas supply is expected to recover in October. The demand for solder has slightly improved, and the domestic inventory has decreased slightly [17]. - Investment Strategy: In the short - term, follow the macro - sentiment and wait and see. In the long - term, hold on dips close to the cost line [17]. Industrial Silicon - Market Data: From September 30 - October 14, the 421 Yunnan and Sichuan basis increased by 285, and the 553 East China and Tianjin basis changed, with the warehouse receipts increasing by 343 [18]. - Market Analysis: Xinjiang's leading enterprises are resuming production, and Sichuan and Yunnan's production is stable. There is a strong expectation of production reduction in November. The supply and demand of industrial silicon will be balanced in Q4 [18]. - Investment Strategy: The price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Data: From September 30 - October 14, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices decreased by 100, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 1538 [18]. - Market Analysis: This week, the lithium carbonate price oscillated. Overseas mines are reluctant to sell at low prices, and traders are holding back supplies. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment is coming to an end, and the spot basis is weakening. The market is still in a stage of over - capacity [18]. - Investment Strategy: The price elasticity is high after supply - side disturbances, and there is strong downward price support before the disturbances [18].
永安期货有色早报-20251015
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-10-15 01:45