原油成品油早报-20251015

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices declined as the first - stage cease - fire agreement in the Gaza region was reached, leading to the unwinding of the Middle East geopolitical risk premium. On Friday, Trump reignited the trade war, which hit the U.S. stock market at night, worsening the macro - sentiment. Brent crude fell to $62 per barrel, with a single - day decline of over 4%. [5] - Fundamentally, crude oil supply continued to be released. OPEC confirmed a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the market expected a further increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December. Since September, OPEC+ crude net exports have increased significantly month - on - month, and Russian crude exports have also increased. [5] - Recently, global floating storage of crude oil has increased significantly. The U.S. EIA commercial crude inventory increased by 3.715 million barrels in the week of October 3, U.S. production increased again, the number of drilling rigs decreased (-4), and gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Global refinery profits declined with the fall of diesel cracking spreads. [5] - Next week, the Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume operations, and global gasoline supply will recover. The U.S. has imposed new sanctions on Iran, affecting Rizhao Port and local refineries. The impact on refinery raw material supply needs to be evaluated, and the fourth - quarter operating rate of local refineries is slightly lowered. [5] - In the baseline scenario, there will be a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of crude oil, and there are signs of the conversion of floating storage inventory to OECD inventory. In 2026, the surplus is expected to be 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day. The oversupply pattern of crude oil remains unchanged. The absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - Negotiations on the second - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza have started. The key points of the U.S. government's "20 - point plan" include the complete withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip and the disarmament of Hamas. However, Hamas insists on Israel ending the occupation and the establishment of a Palestinian state as a precondition for complete disarmament, and the Israeli government has not clearly committed to the complete withdrawal of the army from the Gaza Strip. [3] - Russia's seaborne crude oil exports have reached a 28 - month high. In the four weeks up to October 12, the four - week average of Russia's port crude oil exports was 3.74 million barrels per day, the highest since June 2023. Due to increased production and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, some crude oil has been diverted to export terminals. [4] - TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said that if the oil price falls to $60 per barrel, non - OPEC producers will start to cut production. It is expected that from mid - 2026, non - OPEC supply will decline significantly and hardly grow, and OPEC will regain control of the market. [4] Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week of October 3, U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 161,000 barrels per day to 3.59 million barrels per day, while domestic crude oil production increased by 124,000 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day. [4] - The commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.715 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a growth rate of 0.89%. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 285,000 barrels to 407 million barrels, a growth rate of 0.07%. [4] - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 20.897 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.68%. The import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 6.403 million barrels per day, an increase of 570,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week. [4] - From September 19 - 25, the operating rate of major refineries decreased, while that of Shandong local refineries increased. Domestic gasoline production decreased, diesel production increased, gasoline inventory increased, and diesel inventory decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated downward, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month. [5] Weekly View - This week, oil prices dropped due to the cease - fire in Gaza and the deterioration of the macro - environment. Brent crude fell sharply. [5] - Crude oil supply continued to increase, with OPEC's planned production increases and rising Russian exports. Global floating storage and U.S. commercial crude inventory increased. [5] - Global refinery profits declined, and the Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume operations next week, increasing gasoline supply. [5] - U.S. sanctions on Iran may affect refinery raw material supply, and the fourth - quarter operating rate of local refineries is slightly lowered. [5] - Crude oil is expected to be in surplus in the fourth quarter of this year and 2026, and the absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel. [5]