建信期货股指日评-20251015

Report Summary 1. Report Type and Date - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: October 15, 2025 [2] 2. Research Analysts - Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), contact: 021 - 60635735, email: niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com, qualification number: F03124070 [3] - He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), contact: 18665641296, email: hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com, qualification number: F3008762 [3] - Huang Wenxin (Macro Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), contact: 021 - 60635739, email: huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com, qualification number: F3051589 [3] 3. Market Review and Outlook 3.1 Market Review - On October 14, the Wind All - A Index opened higher and then oscillated downward, closing up 0.17%, with over 3,500 stocks falling. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed down 1.20%, 0.21%, 2.46%, and 1.95% respectively, with large - cap blue - chip stocks performing better. Stock index futures performed weaker than the spot market. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM fell 1.21%, 0.11%, 3.06%, and 2.19% respectively [6]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Tensions between China and the US have significantly eased after extensive communication over the weekend. The US Vice - President Vance said Trump is willing to negotiate on tariffs, and the US Treasury Secretary Besent said a 100% tariff on China may not happen. However, the US is open to all options regarding China's rare - earth export restrictions. - China's export data in September showed resilience, but exports to the US continued to decline. Given the high base due to the export rush at the end of last year, China's export year - on - year data in Q4 may face pressure. - For the A - share market, the previous low - valuation advantage has disappeared after a six - month rise, and the high valuation of the technology sector brings higher risks. The Sino - US game is mainly for the end - of - month negotiation, and China's attitude is more proactive and tough. Therefore, tariff disturbances may not subside soon, and market volatility is likely to continue. - It is recommended to participate with a light position and use arbitrage strategies to resist market risks, such as going long on large - cap blue - chips and short on small - cap growth stocks. In terms of market style, attention can be paid to defensive sectors like banks, gas, and power, as well as new infrastructure and domestic substitution sectors that benefit from policies [7]. 4. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including domestic major index performance, market style performance, industry sector performance (Shenwan Primary Index), trading volume of Wind All - A, trading volume of stock index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - period spread trend, and statistics of major ETF fund shares and trading volume. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][14][15][16][17][24] 5. Industry News - On October 14, the central bank conducted 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, with a net investment of 91 billion yuan as there were no reverse repurchases due that day [25]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson stated China's consistent stance on the tariff and trade war: ready to fight to the end if necessary and always open to negotiation. China and the US have broad common interests, and the two sides have been communicating within the framework of the Sino - US economic and trade negotiation mechanism, with a working - level meeting held the previous day [25]. - The National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Administrative Measures for Special Central Budgetary Investments in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction", which supports energy - saving and carbon - reduction projects in key industries such as power, steel, non - ferrous metals, building materials, petrochemicals, chemicals, and machinery, as well as in infrastructure and central and state - owned institutions [25].