大越期货PVC期货早报-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC increased this week, and the number of expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a slight increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand is close to the historical average. The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method is strengthening, and the overall cost is also strengthening. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4662 - 4722. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The main risk points include the implementation degree of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide method [7][8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 82.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 352,720 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 150,840 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.06%. The supply pressure increased this week, and the number of expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a slight increase in scheduled production [7]. - Demand Side: The overall downstream operating rate was 39.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.55 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 15.87%, a month - on - month decrease of 23.0 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 32.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 68.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.000 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 77.88%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand is close to the historical average [8]. - Cost Side: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 622.11 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 19.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 538.3646 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2343.45 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 1.00%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [8]. - Expectation: The cost of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method is strengthening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The supply pressure increased this week, and the number of expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with an increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand is close to the historical average. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4662 - 4722 [9]. - Leverage Factors: Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory levels and slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents the price, spread, inventory, and downstream operating rate data of PVC enterprises, including different production methods (calcium carbide method and ethylene method), different regions (East China, North China, South China), and different varieties (SG - 5, etc.). For example, on October 14, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4640 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 52 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [16]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC, including the relationship between the basis, the market price of PVC in East China, and the closing price of the main contract [18]. - Price and Volume Trends: It presents the trading volume, opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving average data of PVC futures in 2025, as well as the position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [22]. - Spread Analysis: It shows the historical spread trends of different contracts of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: It includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and inventory data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the price and profit data of related products such as caustic soda and chlorine - alkali [27][30][32][34]. - Supply Trends: It shows the capacity utilization rate, production, and maintenance data of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC production, as well as the daily and weekly production and maintenance data of PVC [39][41]. - Demand Trends: It includes the sales volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rate data, as well as the investment, construction, and sales data of the real estate market and the data of social financing scale, M2 increment, local government special bonds, and infrastructure investment [44][48][53]. - Inventory: It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days data of PVC [57]. - Ethylene Method: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and the spread data of ethylene method FOB and vinyl chloride import [59]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data [62].