广发早知道：汇总版-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with an obvious style shift. The bond market recovered due to the stock market adjustment and loose liquidity. Precious metals prices were volatile, with gold reaching a new high. The shipping index (European line) had an upward trend in the futures market. The prices of various metals and agricultural products also showed different trends and characteristics, affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, macro - policies, and international trade relations [2][5][7][11] - The market is affected by multiple factors, including domestic and international policies, economic data, and trade frictions. For example, the Sino - US tariff issue, the Fed's monetary policy, and the political situation in the United States all have an impact on the market. In the short term, the market may experience fluctuations, but in the long term, the overall trend is still affected by the fundamentals of supply and demand [4][8][17] 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Situation: On Tuesday, A - share major indexes opened higher and then declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.54%, and the ChiNext Index fell 3.99%. The four major stock index futures contracts also declined, and the basis spreads of the main contracts showed narrow - range fluctuations [2][3] - News: Domestically, China imposed counter - measures on 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. Overseas, Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible end to balance - sheet reduction and a potential interest - rate cut [3][4] - Funding: On October 14, the A - share market trading volume increased. The central bank conducted 910 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 910 billion yuan [4] - Operation Suggestion: The market risk appetite may be suppressed in the short term, but the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound. It is recommended to wait for the fluctuations to converge before entering the market at low levels [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures opened low and closed high, with all contracts rising. Bank - to - bank major interest - rate bonds showed a differentiated trend, with medium - and long - term bonds strengthening and short - term bonds weakening [5] - Funding: The central bank conducted 910 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and the short - term liquidity was loose. The money market rate was low, and the long - term capital rate was slightly higher than the previous day [6] - Operation Suggestion: The bond market recovery is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see for over - adjustment opportunities, with the T2512 contract expected to fluctuate between 107.4 and 108.3 [6] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market Review: China imposed counter - measures on US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. Powell hinted at an end to balance - sheet reduction and a possible interest - rate cut. The international precious metals market was volatile, with gold reaching a new high and then falling back [7][8][9] - Outlook: The risk of US economic recession has increased, and the Fed's policy may strengthen the downward pressure on the US dollar. Precious metals are expected to have a bull market, but the price may fluctuate sharply in the short term. It is recommended to hold long positions above 910 yuan and set stop - loss and take - profit levels. For silver, it is recommended to maintain a long - position thinking above 11,000 yuan [9][10] - Funding: Global economic and political turmoil has led investors to increase their allocation of precious metals through ETFs [10] Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot Quotation: As of October 14, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe basic ports from different shipping companies were provided [11] - Shipping Index: As of October 13, the SCFIS European line index decreased by 1.4% month - on - month, and the US - West route index decreased by 1.64% month - on - month. As of October 10, the SCFI composite index increased by 4.12% month - on - month [11] - Fundamentals: As of October 14, the global container total capacity increased by 7.41% year - on - year. The eurozone's September composite PMI was 51.2, and the US September manufacturing PMI was 49.1 [11] - Logic: The futures market showed an upward trend. Although November and December are traditional peak seasons, macro - factors such as Sino - US tariffs and the cease - fire in the Israel - Palestine conflict are negative factors for the European line [12] - Operation Suggestion: Due to many macro - uncertainties, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish on the December contract [12] Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of October 14, the average price of electrolytic copper increased, and the average price of spot premium decreased. The spot trading was expected to remain weak [12] - Macro: The Sino - US tariff issue may affect copper prices. The weak US employment data led to expectations of further monetary easing by the Fed [12][17] - Supply: The shortage of copper ore continued. The production of electrolytic copper in September decreased, and it was expected to continue to decline in October. The decline in sulfuric acid prices may affect the smelter's profit and production [14] - Demand: The downstream demand for copper showed some resilience. Although the demand in the fourth quarter may slow down, the power industry may have more orders in the second half of the year [15] - Inventory: LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic and COMEX copper inventories increased [16] - Logic: The copper price fluctuated weakly. The Sino - US tariff issue and the shortage of copper ore supply were the main influencing factors [17] - Operation Suggestion: Take profit on long positions at high prices, and focus on the support level of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan [17] - Short - term View: Oscillation [17] Alumina - Spot: On October 14, the spot prices of alumina in different regions decreased. The supply pattern was gradually loosening, and the inventory was accumulating [17] - Supply: In September 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased. The industry's operating capacity was at a high level, and it was expected to continue to have an oversupply situation in October [18] - Inventory: The port inventory decreased, the factory inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [19] - Logic: The futures price continued to decline. The supply was abundant, the cost support was weakening, and the demand was sluggish [20] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2,800 and 3,000 yuan [20] - View: Oscillation with a downward trend [20] Aluminum - Spot: On October 14, the average price of A00 aluminum increased, and the average price of spot premium increased [21] - Supply: In September 2025, the production of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased slightly year - on - year and decreased month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio increased. It was expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots would continue to increase slightly in October [21] - Demand: The downstream entered the traditional peak season, but the start - up rate decreased due to the holiday [21] - Inventory: The inventory of domestic mainstream consumption areas increased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased [22] - Logic: The price of Shanghai aluminum futures increased, but the high price suppressed spot purchases. The macro - environment was favorable, and the supply - demand was in a tight - balance state [23] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,700 and 21,300 yuan [23] - View: Wide - range oscillation [23] Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On October 14, the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged [23] - Supply: In August, the production of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased. It was expected that the start - up rate would increase slightly in September [24][25] - Demand: The demand in September showed a mild recovery, but the demand transmission in the terminal field was not smooth, and the high price suppressed procurement [25] - Inventory: The inventory continued to accumulate, and the social inventory in some areas was close to full [25] - Logic: The futures price fluctuated with the aluminum price. The cost support was strong, the supply was affected by raw materials and policies, and the demand was gradually recovering [26] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,200 and 20,800 yuan. If the short - term upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is strong, consider the arbitrage of going long on AD12 and short on AL12 when the spread is above 500 [26][27] - View: Wide - range oscillation [27] Zinc - Spot: On October 14, the average price of 0 zinc ingot increased slightly, and the spot was in a weak state with a discount [27] - Supply: From January to September, the supply of the zinc industry chain was loose, but the decline in domestic TC and sulfuric acid prices limited the increase in zinc ingot production [28] - Demand: The overall demand did not exceed expectations. The start - up rate of primary processing industries decreased due to the holiday, and it was expected to recover gradually next week [29] - Inventory: Both domestic and LME zinc inventories increased [30] - Logic: The zinc price oscillated, and the supply - demand fundamentals were relatively weak. The price was expected to remain oscillating in the short term [30][31] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 21,500 and 22,500 yuan [31] - Short - term View: Oscillation [31] Tin - Spot: On October 14, the price of 1 tin decreased, and the spot trading was light [31] - Supply: In August, the import of tin ore and tin ingots showed different trends. The supply from Myanmar improved in the short term, and the export of tin ingots from Indonesia decreased [32] - Demand and Inventory: In September, the start - up rate of solder increased slightly, but the demand in traditional fields was weak. The inventory decreased [33] - Logic: The supply was relatively strong, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be affected by macro - factors and the supply situation in Myanmar [34] - Operation Suggestion: Pay attention to buying opportunities when the macro - sentiment falls [34] - Recent View: Wide - range oscillation [34] Nickel - Spot: As of October 14, the average price of 1 electrolytic nickel decreased, and the import spot premium increased [34] - Supply: In September, the production of refined nickel increased. It was expected to continue to increase slightly [35] - Demand: The demand for electroplating and stainless steel was stable or weak, while the demand for alloys was good. The demand for nickel sulfate had short - term support but faced challenges in the medium term [35][36] - Inventory: Overseas inventory remained high, domestic social inventory increased, and bonded - area inventory was stable [36] - Logic: The nickel price oscillated weakly. The macro - environment was uncertain, and the supply - demand fundamentals were complex. The price was expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [37] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 120,000 and 126,000 yuan. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [37][38] - Short - term View: Range oscillation [38] Stainless Steel - Spot: As of October 14, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased, and the basis increased [38] - Raw Materials: The price of nickel ore was firm, the price of nickel iron was stable, and the price of chrome iron increased [38] - Supply: In September, the production of domestic stainless steel increased, and it was expected to continue to increase in October [39] - Inventory: Social inventory increased after the holiday, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [39] - Logic: The stainless - steel price oscillated downward. The macro - environment was weak, the supply was under pressure, and the demand did not meet expectations [40] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,400 and 12,800 yuan. Pay attention to macro - expectations and steel - mill dynamics [40][41] - Short - term View: Weak oscillation [42] Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of October 14, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly, and the trading was light [42] - Supply: In September, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and it continued to increase in the week of October 9. The increase mainly came from new projects and lithium - spodumene processing [42] - Demand: The demand was optimistic, with an increase in orders from the new - energy and energy - storage sectors. The export volume also increased [43] - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased, with the smelter reducing inventory and the downstream replenishing inventory seasonally [43] - Logic: The futures price oscillated strongly. The fundamentals were in a tight - balance state during the peak season. The price was expected to oscillate in the short term [44] - Operation Suggestion: The main - contract price is expected to oscillate between 70,000 and 75,000 yuan. Pay attention to macro - risks [44][45] - Short - term View: Oscillation and consolidation [45] Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price of steel decreased. The basis of rebar weakened, and the basis of hot - rolled coil was slightly stronger [45] - Cost and Profit: The cost of steel had support, and the profit decreased significantly from a high level. The profit order was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [45] - Supply: In September - October, the production of molten iron remained high, but decreased slightly during the National Day holiday. The production of five major steel products was basically the same year - on - year [45][46] - Demand: The apparent demand for rebar decreased year - on - year but improved seasonally. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased year - on - year and was basically the same month - on - month [46] - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products increased, with rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories rising. The inventory was expected to increase year - on - year but decrease month - on - month [47] - View: The steel price weakened, but the decline was less than that of iron ore. The supply - demand of steel improved, but the demand for hot - rolled coil needed to be observed. Pay attention to the support levels of 3,000 and 3,200 yuan for rebar and hot - rolled coil in the January contract [47] Iron Ore - Spot: As of October 14, the spot prices of mainstream iron - ore powders decreased [48] - Futures: As of October 14, the iron - ore futures prices decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened [48] - Basis: The optimal deliverable product was PB powder, and the basis of different iron - ore varieties was calculated [48] - Demand: As of October 9, the daily output of molten iron, blast - furnace operating rate, and other indicators decreased slightly [48] - Supply: As of October 13, the global iron - ore shipment decreased week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased. The monthly import volume in September increased [49] - Inventory: Port inventory increased, the daily port - clearance volume decreased, and steel - mill import inventory decreased [49] - View: The iron - ore futures price oscillated downward. The supply - demand fundamentals were complex, and the price was expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil [49][50] Coking Coal - Futures and Spot: As of October 14, the coking - coal futures price oscillated and rebounded. The spot price in Shanxi was stable or decreased, and the price of Mongolian coal increased [51][54] - Supply: As of October 8, the production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines decreased, and the production and inventory of raw coal and clean coal changed [51][52] - Demand: As of October 8, the daily output of coke decreased slightly, and the demand for downstream replenishment weakened [53] - Inventory: The total coking - coal inventory decreased slightly, with different trends in different sectors [53] - View: The coking - coal