建信期货集运指数日报-20251015

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The current spot freight rates are continuously declining due to the traditional off - season from September to October and limited capacity regulation, but shipping companies are raising freight rates for the second half of October to support prices for the year - end long - term contract season, and a bottom - up trend is likely to form. Although the announced rate increases may not fully materialize, there is a high probability of a recovery trend. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas impacts the market, but its progress and the impact on Red Sea re - navigation are uncertain. There is an opportunity for an oversold rebound due to China's countermeasures against the US in the maritime field [8] - The China Export Container Transport Market has been stable after the National Day holiday. The freight rates of long - haul routes have rebounded, driving up the composite index. The manufacturing PMI in September shows an improvement in the manufacturing industry [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Current Situation: 9 - 10 months are the traditional off - season, with limited capacity regulation and supply pressure. Spot freight rates are falling, but shipping companies are raising rates for the second half of October. For example, Maersk's large container rate for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the second half of October can reach up to $1911, and other major shipping companies' rates also show significant increases [8] - Market Impact Factors: The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas impacts the market, but its progress and the impact on Red Sea re - navigation are uncertain. China's countermeasures against the US in the maritime field may lead to an oversold rebound [8] 2. Industry News - China's Export Container Transport Market: After the National Day holiday, it has been stable. The freight rates of long - haul routes have rebounded, driving up the composite index. The manufacturing PMI in September shows an improvement in the manufacturing industry [9] - European Routes: The eurozone's September composite PMI is above the boom - bust line, and the freight rates have rebounded after adjustment. On October 10, the Shanghai - Europe basic port market freight rate was $1068/TEU, a 10.0% increase from the previous period [9] - Mediterranean Routes: The market situation is in sync with European routes. The supply - demand fundamentals are stable, and the spot booking prices have increased. On October 10, the Shanghai - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate was $1558/TEU, a 4.9% increase from the previous period [9] - North American Routes: The US September ISM manufacturing PMI is below the boom - bust line. The US has imposed additional fees on Chinese ships, and China has countered. The freight rates have increased slightly. On October 10, the Shanghai - US West and US East basic port market freight rates were $1468/FEU and $2452/FEU respectively, with increases of 0.5% and 2.8% from the previous period [10] - Cease - fire Agreement: Hamas has reached a cease - fire agreement, and 20 Israeli detainees will be released in two batches. Israel will release nearly 2000 Palestinian detainees. Turkey is allowed to transport aid to Gaza, and the US plans to send up to 200 soldiers to assist in stabilizing the situation and supporting aid transportation [10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Spot Freight Rates - Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Rate Index: On October 13, 2025, the SCFIS for the European route was 1031.8, a 1.4% decrease from October 6; the SCFIS for the US West route was 862.48, a 1.6% decrease from October 6 [12] 3.2 Freight Index (European Line) Futures Market - Transaction Data of Container Shipping European Line Futures on October 14: Contracts such as EC2510, EC2512, etc. show different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, EC2512 had a closing price of 1674.1, a 7.36% increase, and a trading volume of 46708 [6]