Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Steel: Although steel demand is weak, the cost side provides support. For the January contracts, pay attention to the price supports of 3000 for rebar and 3200 for hot-rolled coils. If the hot-rolled coil apparent demand can recover to the 3.25 million tons level at the end of September, the steel inventory pressure will be low. Rebar production is lower than apparent demand, and with losses in tonnage steel profit, it is expected to maintain a de-stocking trend [2]. - Iron Ore: Due to the weak operation of steel prices and the continuous decline in the profitability of steel mills, concerns on the supply side and weakness on the demand side will limit iron ore to fluctuate within a range. Pay attention to whether the steel industry implements the ban on new production capacity and production reduction control in the fourth quarter, as well as the progress of China-Australia iron ore negotiations. Macroscopically, focus on the impact of the China-US tariff war and subsequent negotiations. For strategies, iron ore is still in a balanced and slightly tight pattern, and the weakness of finished products drags down raw materials. Temporarily observe on a single side, with the range referring to 750 - 830, and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot-rolled coils [5]. - Coke: Speculative investors are advised to go long on Coke 2601 at low prices, with the range referring to 1550 - 1700. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. Pay attention to the signs of bottom stabilization as the market fluctuates greatly [7]. - Coking Coal: It is recommended to go long on Coking Coal 2601 at low prices in the short term, with the range referring to 1080 - 1200. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. Be cautious as the market fluctuates greatly [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - Prices and Spreads: Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, rebar 05 contract dropped from 3139 to 3114, and hot-rolled coil 05 contract decreased from 3274 to 3248. Steel billet price decreased by 10 to 2930, and plate billet price remained unchanged at 3730. Profits varied, with East China hot-rolled coil profit dropping by 7 to 62 [2]. - Production: Daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.3 to 241.5, a 0.1% decline. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.8 to 863.3, a 0.4% decline. Rebar production decreased by 3.6 to 203.4, a 1.7% decline, with electric furnace output dropping by 2.5 to 23.3, a 9.8% decline [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 127.9 to 1600.7, an 8.7% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 57.4 to 659.6, a 9.5% increase, and hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 32.3 to 412.9, an 8.5% increase [2]. - Demand: Apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 153.4 to 751.4, a 17.0% decline. Rebar apparent demand decreased by 87.9 to 153.2, a 36.5% decline, and hot-rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 29.6 to 295.0, a 9.1% decline [2]. Iron Ore - Prices and Spreads: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines dropping by 19.8 to 830.8, a 2.3% decline. Spot prices at Rizhao Port also declined, for example, the price of Carajás fines decreased by 18.0 to 908.0, a 1.9% decline [5]. - Supply: The weekly global shipment volume of iron ore decreased by 71.5 to 3207.5, a 2.2% decline, while the 45-port arrival volume increased by 437.1 to 3045.8, a 16.8% increase. The national monthly import volume increased by 61.5 to 10522.5, a 0.6% increase [5]. - Demand: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5, a 0.1% decline. The weekly average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports decreased by 9.4 to 327.0, a 2.8% decline. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 100.5 to 6979.3, a 1.4% decline, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9, a 2.9% decline [5]. - Inventory: The 45-port inventory increased by 61.6 to 14086.14, a 0.4% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 990.6 to 9046.2, a 9.9% decline, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 4.0 to 21.0, a 16.0% decline [5]. Coke and Coking Coal - Prices and Spreads: The price of Shanxi quasi-primary wet quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1561, and the price of Shanxi medium-sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) also remained unchanged at 1270. Coke 01 contract increased by 12 to 1655, and coking coal 01 contract increased by 8 to 1154 [7]. - Supply: The weekly average daily output of all-sample coking plants remained unchanged at 66.1. The weekly output of coke decreased by 0.3 to 241.5, a 0.1% decline. For coking coal, the output of sample coal mines decreased, with raw coal output decreasing by 31.3 to 836.7, a 3.6% decline, and clean coal output decreasing by 19.8 to 426.3, a 4.4% decline [7]. - Demand: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5, a 0.1% decline. The weekly demand for coke decreased, and the demand for coking coal also weakened as the coking plant's operation rate decreased slightly [7]. - Inventory: Coke total inventory decreased by 10.1 to 909.8, a 1.1% decline. The inventory of all-sample coking plants increased by 1.5 to 63.8, a 2.5% increase, while the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 12.6 to 650.8, a 1.9% decline. For coking coal, the inventory of all-sample coking plants decreased by 78.7 to 959.1, a 7.6% decline, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 6.9 to 781.1, a 0.9% decline [7].
《黑色》日报-20251015
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-10-15 02:41