建信期货锌期货日报-20251015

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: October 15, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - Zinc prices are in a repeated game between overseas macro - sentiment, low - inventory support, and weak domestic reality. There is still some risk - aversion sentiment in the market. LME zinc inventory is below 40,000 tons, and the LME0 - 3 Back structure has risen to $200/ton, increasing structural risks. The domestic import - export profit and loss has expanded to 5,100 yuan/ton, and the export window is almost open [7]. - SHFE zinc fluctuated narrowly during the day and weakened in the afternoon. The main contract closed at 22,220 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan or 0.29%. The trading volume was 124,307 lots, and the open interest decreased by 6,505 lots to 95,194 lots [7]. - After the holiday, the downstream提货 speed was slower than the arrival speed. The seven - region zinc ingot inventory has continuously increased to 163,100 tons. Some holders plan to export and are not eager to sell. The spot premium remained stable. The Shanghai market had a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the November contract, the Tianjin market had a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market had a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the November contract [7]. - The zinc market shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, with greater volatility driven by overseas factors. The upside is limited by the domestic fundamentals. Consider short - selling at high prices and pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage opportunity if there is a large - scale delivery of overseas inventory and the actual realization of domestic export volume [7]. Group 3: Industry News - On October 14, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated at 22,310 - 22,405 yuan/ton, Shuangyan at 22,400 - 22,495 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc at 22,240 - 22,335 yuan/ton. The morning market quoted a premium of 40 - 60 yuan/ton over the SMM average price [8]. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at 22,280 - 22,355 yuan/ton, with a discount of 35 yuan/ton to the November contract and a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot [8]. - In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc was traded at 22,250 - 22,410 yuan/ton, and Zijin at 22,320 - 22,470 yuan/ton. The 0 zinc ordinary had a discount of 50 to a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the November contract, and Zijin had a premium of 20 - 80 yuan/ton to the November contract. The Tianjin market had a premium of about 10 yuan/ton over the Shanghai market [8][9]. - In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was traded at 22,250 - 22,380 yuan/ton, with a discount of 45 yuan/ton to the November contract and a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes figures such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources from Wind and SMM, as well as the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [11][12]