建信期货铁矿石日评-20251015

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: October 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On October 14, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract fluctuated upward, closing at 795 yuan/ton, up 1.02%. During the negotiation between Sinomine Resource Group and BHP, the market's risk aversion sentiment supported the iron ore price. If the rumor is confirmed, combined with the recent escalation of Sino-US tariff disputes in the macro market, the price may fluctuate weakly, but it is expected to remain within the oscillation range since August. The subsequent repair of downstream demand needs to be closely monitored [7][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 14, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract fluctuated upward, opening higher and then moving in a volatile manner, closing at 795 yuan/ton, up 1.02%. The main iron ore outer - disk quotes rose by 1.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major iron ore grades at Qingdao Port rose by 5 - 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract showed a divergent trend, with the K and J values continuing to rise and the D value continuing to fall, showing a golden - cross trend. The green bar of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract narrowed for two consecutive trading days [7][9]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: There are reports that Sinomine Resource Group has suspended the purchase of imported iron ore produced by BHP priced in US dollars, and there are rumors that BHP has agreed to fulfill long - term contracts priced in RMB. During the negotiation stage, the supply uncertainty has given a certain boost to the ore price. If the rumor is confirmed, China's bargaining power over the ore price will be further enhanced, and the market sentiment may decline. - Fundamentals: In September, the shipments and arrivals from Australia and Brazil both increased, partly due to the end - of - quarter volume rush. Considering the regular decline after the end - of - quarter volume rush, the shipments in October are expected to decline. The arrivals last week increased significantly and are expected to gradually decline. On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output is still at a relatively high level of over 2.4 million tons but has declined slightly for three consecutive weeks. Considering the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, the profits of rebar blast furnaces, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and electric furnaces have all fallen into the loss state. The subsequent output growth space is limited, and it may oscillate and decline at around 2.4 million tons in the short term. After the festival, the production and demand data of the five major steel products declined significantly, especially the demand for construction steel may have been affected by the holiday lag, and the subsequent demand repair situation needs to be observed. In terms of inventory, steel mills increased their pre - festival replenishment efforts, and the iron ore inventory of steel mills continued to grow, which is expected to gradually decline after the festival and return to the state of on - demand replenishment. [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - The central bank conducted 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method on October 14, with an operating rate of 1.40%, a bid volume of 91 billion yuan, and a winning bid volume of 91 billion yuan. There were no reverse repurchase maturities on that day, resulting in a net investment of 91 billion yuan. - The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce responded to the recent US announcement of additional tariffs and other restrictive measures on China, stating that China's stance on the tariff war and trade war is consistent. China is ready to fight to the end if necessary and is also open to talks. China and the US have extensive common interests and broad cooperation space, and cooperation benefits both sides while confrontation harms both. The two sides have always maintained communication under the framework of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism and had a working - level meeting the previous day. - The National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Administrative Measures for Special Central Budgetary Investment in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction", which mentioned supporting energy - saving and carbon - reduction projects in key industries such as power, steel, non - ferrous metals, building materials, petrochemicals, chemicals, and machinery, as well as energy - saving and carbon - reduction renovations of infrastructure such as heating and computing power, and energy - saving and carbon - reduction renovations of central and state organs. [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipments of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals of iron ore at 45 ports, the domestic mine capacity utilization rate, the trading volume of iron ore at major ports, the available days of iron ore inventory in steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the inventory and port clearance volume of iron ore at ports, the tax - free pig iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][18][22].