《特殊商品》日报-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon supply increased in October, putting pressure on prices, but there is cost support below, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The main price fluctuation range may be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 11 - contract drops to around 8,000 yuan/ton, consider going long on a trial basis [1]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is relatively stable, with high - level fluctuations. The increasing supply pressure may cause prices to decline, but if the spot is strong, there is still strong support below. The quality of futures delivery products is good, which may bring trading opportunities on the futures market. Pay attention to policy implementation, production control, and whether there is an increase in demand orders [2]. Natural Rubber - In the short term, the driving force for rubber prices is limited. It is expected that rubber prices will run around 15,500 yuan/ton. Subsequently, pay attention to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas. If the raw material supply is smooth, there may be further downward space [3]. Logs - There is no obvious driving force in the current log supply and demand. The near - month 11 - contract has insufficient willingness of long - positions to take delivery, and the far - month 01 - contract is relatively strong. The market may fluctuate widely in the short term, and there is certain support below the price during the seasonal peak season [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash continues to weaken, with inventory piling up. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and it is recommended to continue the short - selling strategy on rebounds. Glass sales are sluggish, the market price is weak, and the trading is bearish during the peak season. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average market price of oxygen - passing Si5530 industrial silicon in the East China region was 9,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Spreads - The spread of 2510 - 2511 was - 30 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, a decrease of 220% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon output was 42.08 million tons, an increase of 3.51 million tons compared to the previous year, a growth of 9.1% [1]. Inventory Changes - The weekly inventory of factories in Xinjiang was 10.86 million tons, an increase of 0.22 million tons compared to the previous week, a growth of 2.07% [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 was stable at 52,750 yuan/ton [2]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The price of the main contract was 49,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,250 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, a growth of 2.56% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - The weekly polysilicon output was 3.10 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons compared to the previous week, a decline of 0.32% [2]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory was 24.00 million tons, an increase of 1.40 million tons compared to the previous period, a growth of 6.19% [2]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of 2CRML rubber from South China was 14,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, Thailand's rubber production was 458.80 million tons, a decrease of 2.00 million tons compared to the previous year, a decline of 0.43% [3]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory was 456,525 tons, a decrease of 4,663 tons compared to the previous day, a decline of 1.01% [3]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - The price of the 2511 log contract was 787.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 15.5 yuan/cubic meter compared to the previous day, a decline of 1.93% [4]. Supply - In September, the port shipping volume was 1.766 million cubic meters, an increase of 100,000 cubic meters compared to August, a growth of 6% [4]. Inventory - As of October 10, the national log inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a growth of 4.55% [4]. Demand - As of October 10, the average daily log delivery volume in China was 57,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 8,300 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a decline of 13% [4]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass quotation was 1,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, a decline of 0.81% [5]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash quotation was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. Supply - The soda ash weekly output was 770,800 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons compared to the previous week, a growth of 3.37% [5]. Inventory - The glass factory warehouse inventory was 62.824 million heavy boxes, an increase of 3.469 million heavy boxes compared to the previous period, a growth of 5.84% [5]. Real Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 0.09%, an increase of 0.09% compared to the previous period [5].