《农产品》日报-20251015

Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are consolidating, testing the 4450 ringgit support. If it holds, there's a chance of recovery. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures are expected to weaken in the short - term and then potentially rebound after reaching around 9200 yuan. US soybean supply and export issues are dragging down CBOT soybean and soybean oil. Domestic soybean oil supply is ample, with high inventory and expected large imports in the coming months [1]. Meal - Sino - US trade relations are uncertain. US soybean fundamentals are weak, while Brazilian new - crop soybean planting is progressing well, suppressing US soybean prices. In Q4 2025, domestic soybean supply is sufficient, but there may be a shortage in Q1 2026, supporting the M2601 contract. Spot prices are expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 positive spread opportunity [4]. Corn - In the northeast, supply is abundant, and farmers are eager to sell due to a good harvest, leading to price drops. In the north, poor grain quality and high vehicle arrivals are pressuring prices. Demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is lackluster, but there may be seasonal restocking needs. Currently, corn is in a weak position due to strong supply and weak demand [6]. Sugar - Brazilian sugar production in the central - southern region in the first half of September met expectations. Supply pressure is keeping the raw sugar price bearish. In China, typhoons affected sugarcane growth, and downstream demand has slightly recovered. Domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [11]. Cotton - New cotton has a relatively low cost, and cotton enterprises may gradually hedge on the futures market. The cost provides some support to the futures price. Downstream demand is weak, but spinning mills' cotton inventory is low, and their profit and cash - flow have improved. Medium - term cotton prices are likely to face downward pressure when prices are high [12]. Eggs - Egg prices are falling, and farmers are in the loss stage, increasing the slaughter of laying hens. There are signs of molting in some areas. Supply of large - and small - sized eggs may decrease slightly, but overall supply is still abundant due to high inventory. Demand from food enterprises and households is weak after the festival. Egg prices are expected to decline this week with no obvious positive factors [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Soybean Oil: On October 14, the spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8550 yuan, the futures price (Y2601) dropped to 8268 yuan (- 0.34%), the basis (Y2601) increased by 9.93%, and the warehouse receipt remained at 25444 [1]. - Palm Oil: The spot price in Guangdong decreased to 9260 yuan (- 0.22%), the futures price (P2601) dropped to 9330 yuan (- 0.36%), the basis (P2601) increased by 51.92%, and the import profit in Guangzhou Port for January decreased by 16.48% [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased to 10150 yuan (- 0.30%), the futures price (OI601) dropped to 9959 yuan (- 0.63%), and the basis (OI601) increased by 72.66% [1]. Meal - Soybean Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained at 2930 yuan, the futures price (M2601) dropped to 2902 yuan (- 1.02%), the basis (M2601) increased by 1500%, and the import crushing profit for Argentina's December shipment improved by 6.3% [4]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased to 2430 yuan (- 1.22%), the futures price (RM2601) dropped to 2348 yuan (- 1.84%), and the basis (RM2601) increased by 20.59% [4]. Corn - Corn: The futures price of corn 2511 increased slightly to 2093 yuan (0.05%), the Jinzhou Port FOB price decreased to 2130 yuan (- 0.93%), the basis decreased by 36.21%, and the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 42.42% [6]. - Corn Starch: The futures price of corn starch 2511 decreased to 2385 yuan (- 0.67%), the basis increased by 14.68%, and the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 146.67% [6]. Sugar - Futures Market: The futures price of sugar 2601 dropped to 5397 yuan (- 1.33%), the ICE raw sugar main contract increased to 15.87 cents/pound (1.93%), the 1 - 5 spread decreased to 27 yuan (- 15.63%), and the main contract's open interest decreased by 8.24% [11]. - Spot Market: The spot price in Nanning increased to 5810 yuan (0.17%), in Kunming decreased to 5780 yuan (- 0.52%), the basis in Nanning County increased by 21.55%, and the basis in Kunming increased by 10.22% [11]. Cotton - Futures Market: The futures price of cotton 2605 decreased to 13320 yuan (- 0.30%), cotton 2601 decreased to 13265 yuan (- 0.26%), the ICE US cotton main contract decreased to 63.43 cents/pound (- 0.17%), and the 5 - 1 spread decreased to 55 yuan (- 8.33%) [12]. - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased to 14598 yuan (- 0.30%), the CC Index of 3128B decreased to 14755 yuan (- 0.23%), and the FC Index of M: 1% decreased to 12816 yuan (- 0.13%) [12]. Eggs - Futures Market: The price of the egg 11 - contract increased to 2852 yuan/500KG (1.57%), the 01 - contract increased to 3237 yuan/500KG (0.81%), and the 11 - 01 spread increased to - 385 yuan (- 4.47%) [15]. - Spot Market: The egg - producing area price increased slightly to 2.82 yuan/jin (0.12%), the egg - chick price remained at 2.60 yuan/feather, the culled - hen price decreased to 4.46 yuan/jin (- 3.88%), and the egg - feed ratio decreased to 2.51 (- 11.31%) [15].