集运早报-20251015

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of the Middle East geopolitical situation and Sino - US tariff policies. The measure of China's counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. is expected to have little impact on the European line. With average cargo collection in Week43 and high shipping capacity in Week44, the price increase declaration in early November is expected to have poor implementation, but there are still upward drivers in subsequent price increase declaration nodes. The valuation of the December contract is neutral, and the long - position trading has returned to a period driven by fundamentals. Geopolitical factors have a greater impact on the 2026 contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Contract Information - Futures Prices and Changes: For EC2510, the closing price was 1136.2, with a 0.60% increase; EC2512 closed at 1674.1, up 7.14%; EC2602 at 1464.4, up 7.68%; EC2604 at 1150.0, up 4.69%; EC2606 at 1318.8, up 4.01% [2]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 537.9, with a month - on - month change of - 104.8 and a week - on - week change of 83.4; the spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 209.7, with a month - on - month change of 7.1 and a week - on - week change of 120.6 [2]. Spot Freight Index - SCHIS: Updated every Monday, as of October 13, 2025, it was 1031.80 points, down 1.40% from the previous period [2]. - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly, as of October 10, 2025, it was 1068 US dollars/TEU, up 9.99% from the previous period [2]. - CCFI (European Line): Updated weekly, as of October 10, 2025, it was 1287.15 points, down 8.19% from the previous period [2]. - NCFI: Updated weekly, as of October 10, 2025, it was 698.67 points, up 11.39% from the previous period [2]. European Line Quotation - Week40 - 41: The average quotation was 1470 US dollars (equivalent to 1030 points on the futures market) [3]. - Week42: The online quotation was 1800 US dollars, and the overall average was 1600 US dollars (1120 points) [3]. - November Price Increase Declaration: MSK, CMA, OOCL declared a price increase to around 2500 US dollars, equivalent to around 1750 points on the futures market, but it is difficult to implement due to average cargo collection in Week43 and high shipping capacity in Week44 (330,000 TEU) [3]. News - On October 14, Israeli drones attacked an eastern community in Gaza City, resulting in 3 Palestinian deaths [4]. - On October 15, the negotiation of the second - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza was launched. The key points of the negotiation include the complete withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip and the disarmament of Hamas, but there are still differences between the two sides [4].