大越期货甲醇早报-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market shows regional differences. The inland market has declined significantly. Although Inner Mongolia olefins continue to purchase externally, after the holiday, with sufficient enterprise inventories, suppliers have offered discounts to sell. Some imported goods at ports have flowed back to the inland, leading to a bearish sentiment in the sales area. The port market has been driven by sanction news and the late - session rise of futures, with port spot prices slightly firm, and the basis maintaining a strengthening trend. The short - term domestic market is expected to adjust narrowly [5]. - The basis of the 01 contract shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish factor. As of October 9, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol at ports in East and South China has increased, and the overall available and tradable supply in coastal areas has also increased, which is a bearish factor. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, both of which are bearish factors. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2250 - 2355 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The domestic methanol market has regional performance. Inland prices have dropped, while port prices are slightly firm. The short - term market is expected to have a narrow adjustment. The price of MA2601 is expected to oscillate between 2250 - 2355 [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns Bullish Factors - Some plants have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya [6]. - The methanol production in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level [6]. - A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in the second half of this month [6]. - CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. Bearish Factors - Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua [7]. - There is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month [7]. - Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has declined significantly [7]. - Coal - to - methanol production has a certain profit margin, and current sales are active [7]. - Due to poor sales, inventories at some production plants in the production area have accumulated [7]. 3. Fundamental Data Price Data - In the spot market, the price of methanol in different regions has changed. For example, the price in Jiangsu has increased by 1.92% week - on - week, while the price in Hebei has decreased by 0.45%. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract has decreased by 68 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [8][9]. - The basis has increased by 53 yuan/ton, and the import spread has increased by 68 yuan/ton [8]. Operating Rate Data - The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% compared to the previous week. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all decreased [8]. Inventory Data - As of October 9, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol at ports in East and South China is 1273,000 tons, an increase of 4900 tons compared to before the holiday. The overall available and tradable supply in coastal areas has increased by 59,900 tons to 940,500 tons [5]. Profit Data - The profits of different methanol production processes have changed. Coal - to - methanol profit has increased by 84 yuan/ton week - on - week, while natural gas - to - methanol profit remains unchanged, and coke oven gas - to - methanol profit has increased by 326 yuan/ton [21]. Downstream Product Data - The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have remained unchanged week - on - week. The production profits and operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, MTO have also changed to varying degrees [29][34][37][41][46]. 4. Maintenance Status - Many domestic methanol production enterprises are under maintenance. In the Northwest region, enterprises such as Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and Shaanxi Huangling are under maintenance. In the East China region, enterprises such as Jinmei Zhongneng and Anhui Linhong Coking are under maintenance. In the Southwest region, enterprises such as Sichuan Lutianhua and Yunnan Qujing are under maintenance. In the Northeast region, enterprises such as Heilongjiang Baojia are under maintenance [57]. - Overseas methanol production enterprises also have different operating conditions. Some Iranian enterprises are in the process of resuming production, while some enterprises in other countries are under maintenance or have normal operations [58]. - Some domestic olefin production enterprises are under maintenance. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, expected to last for 45 days [59].