大越期货原油早报-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - Overnight crude oil continued to trade weakly. Sino-US trade disputes showed no sign of abating, pressuring oil prices. IEA and OPEC released monthly reports expressing varying degrees of risk of crude oil surplus, further suppressing oil prices. Domestic crude oil has reached its lowest level this year, and there is still a risk of decline without geopolitical positives. Short-term trading is expected in the range of 440 - 450, and long-term investment should be on the sidelines [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Whether the US will impose a 100% tariff on Chinese exports on November 1st or earlier depends on China's attitude. IEA predicts a surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day in the world oil market next year, while OPEC+ report is less pessimistic, stating that the supply gap will narrow in 2026 [3] - Basis: On October 14th, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $64.25 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $62.91 per barrel, with a basis of $19.58 per barrel, indicating a spot premium over futures [3] - Inventory: US API crude oil inventory increased by 2.78 million barrels in the week ending October 3rd, and EIA inventory increased by 3.715 million barrels. Cushing area inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels. As of October 14th, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.401 million barrels [3] - Disk: The 20-day moving average is downward, and the price is below the average [3] - Main Position: As of September 23rd, the main position of WTI crude oil was long, with an increase in long positions. As of October 7th, the main position of Brent crude oil was long, with a decrease in long positions [3] - Expectation: Short-term trading in the range of 440 - 450, long-term on the sidelines [3] 2. Recent News - Trade Tensions: US threats to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese exports may not materialize. Trump expects to reach an agreement with China, and market analysts believe the threat may be more bluster than action [5] - Oil Price Drop: Oil prices fell to a five-month low on Tuesday. IEA reported a "large surplus" in crude oil supply, with an expected daily surplus of 3.2 million barrels from this month to June 2026. Despite OPEC+ announcing a small increase in production in November, IEA's prediction reignited concerns about supply surplus [5] 3. Long and Short Concerns - Likely to Rise: Threats to refineries and oil fields from the Russia-Ukraine conflict; Trump's tariff threat subsiding [6] - Likely to Fall: Easing of the Middle East situation; US government shutdown risk; OPEC+ considering further production increases [6] - Market Driver: Short-term weakening of geopolitical conflicts, long-term risk of increased supply [6] 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: Brent crude oil settled at $62.39, down $0.93 or -1.47%; WTI crude oil settled at $58.70, down $0.79 or -1.33%; SC crude oil settled at 451.8 yuan, up 0.30 yuan or 0.07%; Oman crude oil settled at $62.74, down $1.16 or -1.82% [7] - Spot Quotes: UK Brent Dtd was at $62.82, down $1.53 or -2.38%; WTI was at $58.70, down $0.79 or -1.33%; Oman crude oil was at $63.26, down $0.99 or -1.54%; Shengli crude oil was at $60.60, down $1.73 or -2.78%; Dubai crude oil was at $63.64, down $1.41 or -2.17% [9] - Inventory Data: API and EIA inventory data showed an increase in US crude oil inventory, while Cushing area inventory decreased [3][10][14] 5. Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of September 23rd, the net long position increased by 4,249 [17] - Brent Crude Oil: As of October 7th, the net long position decreased by 61,713 [19]