Group 1: Report Summary - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: October 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] Group 2: Market Performance - On October 14, the main contracts 2601 of coke and coking coal futures oscillated lower, hit new lows since September 15 and September 11 respectively, then rebounded significantly, recovering the day's losses and rising. The closing prices of J2601 and JM2601 were 1654.5 yuan/ton and 1153.5 yuan/ton, with increases of 0.36% and 0.74% respectively. The trading volumes were 22,849 lots and 968,042 lots, and the open interests were 42,439 lots and 607,030 lots, with increases of 485 lots and 17,621 lots respectively. The capital inflows were 0.26 billion yuan and 2.97 billion yuan [5]. - The daily KDJ indicators of the coke and coking coal 2601 contracts showed divergent trends, with the J and K values turning up and the D value continuing to decline. The daily MACD green bars of both contracts narrowed slightly [8]. Group 3: Spot Market - On October 14, the flat - price indices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port were 1520 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1495 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, while there was no change in other regions [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - News: After China's counter - measures, the US authorities threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China but later lowered the expectation and tone of the Sino - US trade conflict. There were unconfirmed reports about the procurement of imported iron ore by Sinomine Resource Group [10]. - Fundamentals - Coke: Since late May, the coke output of independent coking plants has decreased slightly for 4 consecutive weeks. The coke output of steel mills has increased significantly from the low since August 2023 in early September, but the growth rate has narrowed. Port coke inventory has oscillated lower to a new low since mid - July and then rebounded slightly. Steel mill inventory has increased for 6 consecutive weeks, reached a new high since late May, and then started to destock. Coking plant inventory has rebounded from a new low since late October last year. Tonnage coke profit has turned profitable after 3 consecutive weeks of losses, and the first round of spot price increase for coke was implemented on October 1 [10]. - Fundamentals - Coking Coal: From January to August, the year - on - year decline in China's coal and lignite imports narrowed by 0.8 percentage points to - 12.2%, and the year - on - year decline in coking coal imports narrowed slightly to - 7.6%. In the past 16 weeks, the inventories of refined coal and raw coal in mines have dropped significantly, with overall declines of 60.8% and 36.4% respectively. The inventory of independent coking plants has dropped significantly from a new high since the end of January, steel mill inventory has dropped for 2 consecutive weeks to a new low since late June, and port inventory has rebounded to the level of late July. After coking plants completed restocking and then significantly destocked, the prices of major coking coal spot markets continued to be strong [11]. - Overall: Geopolitical factors have increased market volatility. The boost from the first - round increase in coke spot prices is weakening, and the strong coking coal spot market cannot currently drive the coking coal futures to strengthen again. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US relationship, the supply change in the iron ore spot market, the path of steel profit recovery, and the re - inflation rhythm differences among precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and energy and chemical commodities caused by macro - asset allocation [11]. Group 5: Industry News - The relevant departments will investigate the impact of the US 301 investigation on China's shipping and shipbuilding industries and related supply chains and may introduce corresponding measures [12]. - In early October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 2032 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 203.2 million tons, a 7.5% increase from the previous period; 1875 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 187.5 million tons, a 3.2% increase; and 1961 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 196.1 million tons, an 8.5% decrease. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1588 million tons, a 8.2% increase from the previous ten - day period [12][13]. - From January to September, the production and sales of automobiles were 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 12.9%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 11 million, with year - on - year increases of over 30%, and the new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 46.1% of the total new - vehicle sales [13]. - Baotailong's stock price had abnormal fluctuations. The company's coke oven maintenance was completed, and its affiliated coal mine was approved as a formal mine, with normal production and operation activities [13]. - The freight volume of ST Guangwu's Hongnao Railway in September was 2.6349 million tons, a 45.61% year - on - year increase [13]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to the US tariff increase, stating that China is ready to fight and also open to talks, and urged the US to correct its wrong actions [13]. - Huaneng Hydropower's power generation in the first three quarters of 2025 was 96.266 billion kWh, a 11.90% year - on - year increase, and the on - grid electricity was 95.49 billion kWh, a 12.02% year - on - year increase [13]. - The world's first China - Europe Arctic container express line was successfully opened on October 13, which will bring significant time and cost advantages to China - Europe trade [13][14]. - The World Steel Association predicted that the global steel demand in 2025 will be flat at about 1.75 billion tons compared with 2024, and will rebound moderately by 1.3% to 1.772 billion tons in 2026 [14]. - In September 2025, 12 large state - owned ports in India imported 15.587 million tons of coal, a 14.08% year - on - year and 12.07% month - on - month increase, reaching a three - month high [14]. - Rio Tinto's equity iron ore production in the third quarter of 2025 was 74.168 million tons, a 1% year - on - year and 1% quarter - on - quarter increase; the shipment volume was 73.804 million tons, a 1% year - on - year decrease and 4% quarter - on - quarter increase [14]. - On October 14, the German electricity price soared to the highest level since February, reaching 156.14 euros per MWh [14]. - OPEC maintained its global economic growth forecast at 3% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026. The average OPEC+ crude oil production in September 2025 was 43.05 million barrels per day, an increase of 630,000 barrels per day from August. It is expected that the global oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 [14]. Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the production and capacity utilization rates of coking plants and steel mills, national daily average hot metal production, coke and coking coal inventories in ports, steel mills, and coking plants, tonnage coke profit of independent coking plants, production and inventory of sample mines, and the basis differences between Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and the January contract, and Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal and the January contract [17][19][22][28][29]
建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20251015
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-10-15 03:32