Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the weather is normal with stable raw material supply, but the purchase price has slightly decreased due to the decline in futures and spot prices. In Hainan, continuous rainfall has restricted tapping operations, slowing the seasonal increase in raw material supply. The overall inventory in Qingdao Port has slightly decreased after the holiday, with the bonded warehouse showing inventory accumulation and the general trade warehouse showing inventory reduction. After the holiday, downstream enterprises are mostly observing and have not shown significant restocking. As tire enterprises resume work after maintenance, the production capacity is expected to be gradually released, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to increase significantly this week. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,750 - 15,400 yuan/ton in the short - term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,850 - 12,350 yuan/ton in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,845 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 11,990 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 15 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 11 - 12 spread of 20 - number rubber is 20 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,855 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2]. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 149,830 lots, down 1,941 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 27,492 lots, down 2,363 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 26,785 lots, up 1,378 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 10,500 lots, up 461 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 140,420 tons, down 2,520 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 41,429 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,820 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,820 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,450 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,400 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 595 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 490 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,852 yuan/ton, down 292 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 862 yuan/ton, down 242 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 57.95 Thai baht/kg, down 1.16 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 55.1 Thai baht/kg, down 1.01 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue water) is 54.1 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 50.95 Thai baht/kg, down 0.55 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 171 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 15.8 US dollars/ton, up 20.8 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 11.31 million tons, down 0.88 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 26.84 million tons, up 0.89 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 50.87%, down 14.85 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 55.26%, down 18.32 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.87 days, up 0.36 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.7 days, down 0.23 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.92%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.66%, down 0.32 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.2%, up 0.51 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.2%, up 0.52 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In the first week of October 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red - marked areas with more rainfall are mainly in northern and central Vietnam, and the impact on tapping is slightly reduced; in the southern hemisphere, the red - marked areas are mainly in eastern Malaysia, and the impact on tapping is increased [2]. - In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, indicating a weakening of the El Niño phenomenon [2]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale), a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase from the same period last year. From January to September, the cumulative sales exceeded 821,000 vehicles, a 20% year - on - year increase [2]. - As of October 9, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a 17.50 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period and a 36.62 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a 13.83 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period and a 0.78 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251014
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-14 09:52