合成橡胶产业日报-20251014

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The output of domestic synthetic rubber is expected to increase month - on - month as most previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and some plants are operating at increased loads. The br2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,600 - 11,250 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. - In terms of raw materials, although there are planned overhauls of butadiene plants in October, the supply of butadiene remains abundant due to the resumption of previously under - loaded plants and imports. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly during the holiday due to maintenance, but it is expected to rise significantly this week as the plants resume operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main synthetic rubber contract was 10,780 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the open interest of the main contract was 29,075, down 2,938; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber was - 110 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 3,070 tons, up 200 tons [2]. - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers decreased, with the price from齐鲁石化 at 11,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; from 大庆石化 at 11,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; and from 茂名石化 at 11,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber was 370 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Brent crude oil was at $63.32 per barrel, up $0.59; WTI crude oil was at $59.49 per barrel, up $0.59; the Northeast Asian ethylene price was $785 per ton, unchanged; the CFR Japan naphtha price was $566.75 per ton, down $10; the CFR China butadiene intermediate price was $1,020 per ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 8,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly butadiene production capacity was 155,400 tons, up 100 tons; the butadiene capacity utilization rate was 67.37%, up 0.72 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene was 27,750 tons, unchanged [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 135,700 tons, up 6,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 66.41%, down 3.31 percentage points; the production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 544 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,300 tons, down 1,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 55.26%, down 18.32 percentage points; the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic all - steel tires was 50.87%, down 14.85 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.87 days, up 0.36 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.7 days, down 0.23 days [2]. Industry News - From October 9th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased significantly compared with the previous period and the same period last year, and the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises also decreased. Some enterprises carried out maintenance during the holiday, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market reached about 105,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 800,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [2]. - In September 2025, the output and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber decreased slightly. The capacity utilization rate was 69.91%, down 0.49 percentage points from the previous period and up 12.16 percentage points from the same period last year [2].