瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20251015

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the polysilicon industry dated October 15, 2025 [1] 1. Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for polysilicon was 50,865 yuan/ton, up 875 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 79,164 lots, down 2,224 lots; the spread between November and December contracts was -2,400 yuan, down 40 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon was 42,295 yuan/ton, up 825 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon was 52,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was 2,760 yuan/ton, down 1,250 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.54 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average prices of cauliflower - grade, dense - grade, and re - feed polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract for industrial silicon was 8,570 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price was 9,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; monthly export volume was 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; monthly import volume was 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons; monthly output was 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon was 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,006 tons, down 164 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars; the monthly average import price was 2.62 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells was 69.857 million kilowatts, up 3.475 million kilowatts; the average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 149,022,600 units, up 38,589,900 units; the monthly import volume was 21,440,200 units, up 6,914,600 units; the monthly average import price was 0.25 US dollars/unit, down 0.05 US dollars; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 32.82, unchanged [2] 2. Industry News - South Korea's polysilicon leader OCI Holding plans to acquire a 65% stake in a Vietnamese wafer factory through its subsidiary OCI ONE to expand its photovoltaic wafer business. The factory is expected to be completed by the end of October [2] - Industry insiders suggest that a document to strengthen photovoltaic capacity regulation may be issued soon. The draft for soliciting opinions on the new national standard for energy consumption in polysilicon and germanium products has been released, which is beneficial for industry clearance in the long - term but causes short - term market concerns [2] 3. Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, the progress of eliminating some production capacity may be slower than expected, and the "anti - involution" policy details are not yet in place, increasing the difficulty of new capacity launch in the short term [2] - On the demand side, wafer prices are flat, some enterprises raise prices, downstream wafer enterprises have high inventories, and new order procurement slows down. Domestic photovoltaic installations have declined for two consecutive months, and terminal demand is weak [2] - The growth in demand for N - type materials will partially offset the surplus of P - type materials, which may support prices to some extent. The market is observing whether downstream prices can rise, but the situation is not optimistic. Polysilicon is still suppressed by fundamental sentiment, but it rebounded on news today. Photovoltaic module prices have started to rise, but overall demand for polysilicon is still limited. It is expected that polysilicon will continue to fluctuate at a high level, and the operation suggestion is to buy on dips [2] 4. Key Focus - There is no news today [2]