瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20251015

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 15, the SM2601 contract was reported at 5,746, up 0.31%. The Inner Mongolia silicon-manganese spot was reported at 5,550. Affected by Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on China, short - term funds shifted to US Treasury bonds and gold. Fundamentally, pre - holiday inventory rebounded rapidly, production at a high level continued to decline slightly, and inventory increased for three consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 21,000 tons, and the molten iron demand was in high - level oscillation. The Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 170 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 270 yuan/ton. The final price of HeSteel Group's silicon - manganese in September was 6,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 200 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On October 15, the SF2601 contract was reported at 5,352, up 0.34%. The Ningxia silicon - iron spot was reported at 5,200, up 20 yuan/ton. Macroscopically, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Administrative Measures for Special Central Budgetary Investment in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction", supporting energy - saving and carbon - reduction transformation in key industries such as steel. In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers mostly maintained normal production and delivered previous orders. Most manufacturers had hedged in the early stage, and the inventory was at a neutral level. The semi - coke price was stable, and the short - term cost was supported. The Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 480 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 400 yuan/ton. In September, HeSteel's 75B silicon - iron tender price was 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton from the previous round. Technically, the daily K was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5,746元/吨，环比上涨8元/吨；SF主力合约收盘价为0元/吨，环比下跌5,378元/吨 [2] - SM期货合约持仓量为575,060手，环比减少15,330手；SF期货合约持仓量为426,073手，环比增加14,954手 [2] - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 53,757手，环比减少5,221手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 31,048手，环比减少2,919手 [2] - SM5 - 1月合约价差为30元/吨，环比无变化；SF5 - 1月合约价差为86元/吨，环比下降20元/吨 [2] - SM仓单为49,756张，环比减少161张；SF仓单为13,137张，环比减少528张 [2] Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,550元/吨，环比无变化；内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,250元/吨，环比无变化 [2] - 贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,600元/吨，环比无变化；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,090元/吨，环比下降10元/吨 [2] - 云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,600元/吨，环比无变化；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,200元/吨，环比上涨20元/吨 [2] - 锰硅指数均值为5,671.9元/吨，环比下降22.1元/吨；SF主力合约基差为5,200元/吨，环比上涨5,398元/吨 [2] - SM主力合约基差为 - 196元/吨，环比下降8元/吨 [2] Upstream Situation - 南非矿Mn38块天津港价格为24元/吨度，环比无变化；硅石（98%西北）价格为210元/吨，环比无变化 [2] - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1,150元/吨，环比无变化；兰炭（中料神木）价格为760元/吨，环比无变化 [2] - 锰矿港口库存为445.7万吨，环比下降2.1万吨 [2] Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为43.19%，环比下降0.99%；硅铁企业开工率为35.94%，环比上升0.61% [2] - 锰硅供应为204,225吨，环比下降2,205吨；硅铁供应为115,800吨，环比增加1,300吨 [2] - 锰硅厂家库存为242,500吨，环比增加8,700吨；硅铁厂家库存为66,030吨，环比增加4,570吨 [2] - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为15.93天，环比增加0.95天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为15.52天，环比增加0.85天 [2] - 五大钢种锰硅需求为122,073吨，环比下降411吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为19,754.6吨，环比下降111.3吨 [2] Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为84.25%，环比下降0.02%；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为90.53%，环比下降0.10% [2] - 粗钢产量为7,736.86万吨，环比下降228.96万吨 [2] Industry News - 川渝钢铁行业召开“反内卷”研讨会，探讨协同发展路径 [2] - 国际货币基金组织预计2025年世界经济将增长3.2%，较7月预测上调0.2个百分点 [2] - 鲍威尔敞开美联储降息大门，将谨慎行动避免“缩减恐慌” [2] - 中汽协称以旧换新等政策对车市拉动效应大，预计补贴申请的汽车以旧换新总量超1200万辆，带动新车销售额近1.7万亿元 [2]