瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20251015

Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Industry Chain Daily Report 2025/10/15 [1] - Researcher: Cai Yuehui [4] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F0251444 [4] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0013101 [4] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The I2601 contract showed weak performance on Wednesday. With Rio Tinto accelerating iron ore shipments and the Simandou project ahead of schedule, along with tariff disturbances affecting market sentiment, iron ore prices may fluctuate weakly. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows DIFF and DEA adjusting downward. Operationally, short on rebounds, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - I main contract closing price: 776.50 yuan/ton, down 5.50 yuan [2] - I main contract open interest: 508,365 lots, up 8,566 lots [2] - I 1 - 5 contract spread: 22.5 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan [2] - I contract top 20 net open interest: -10,311 lots, up 3,232 lots [2] - I Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts: 700 lots, down 100 lots [2] - Singapore iron ore main contract quote at 15:00: 105 dollars/ton, down 0.17 dollars [2] Spot Market - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB fine ore: 850 yuan/dry ton, down 4 yuan [2] - Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac fine ore: 843 yuan/dry ton, down 4 yuan [2] - Jingtang Port 56.5% Super Special fine ore: 766 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan [2] - I main contract basis (Mac fine dry ton - main contract): 67 yuan, up 1 yuan [2] - Iron ore 62% Platts Index (previous day): 106.20 dollars/ton, down 3.00 dollars [2] - Jiangsu scrap steel / Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac fine ore: 3.30, up 0.01 [2] - Import cost estimate: 867 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2] Industry Situation - Global iron ore shipment volume (weekly): 3,207.50 million tons, down 71.50 million tons [2] - China's 47-port arrival volume (weekly): 3,144.10 million tons, up 368.30 million tons [2] - 47-port iron ore inventory (weekly): 14,641.08 million tons, up 87.12 million tons [2] - Sample steel mills' iron ore inventory (weekly): 9,046.19 million tons, down 990.60 million tons [2] - Iron ore imports (monthly): 11,632.60 million tons, up 1,110.60 million tons [2] - Iron ore available days (weekly): 26 days, up 1 day [2] - 266 mines' daily output (weekly): 39.20 million tons, down 0.16 million tons [2] - 266 mines' operating rate (weekly): 62.54%, up 0.15% [2] - 266 mines' iron concentrate inventory (weekly): 47.95 million tons, down 0.78 million tons [2] - BDI Index: 2,022, down 122 [2] - Iron ore freight rate: Tubarao, Brazil - Qingdao: 23.71 dollars/ton, down 1.49 dollars [2] - Iron ore freight rate: Western Australia - Qingdao: 10.305 dollars/ton, down 1.85 dollars [2] Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate (weekly): 84.25%, down 0.02% [2] - 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate (weekly): 90.53%, down 0.10% [2] - Domestic crude steel output (monthly): 7,737 million tons, down 229 million tons [2] Option Market - Underlying historical 20-day volatility (daily): 16.15%, down 1.04% [2] - Underlying historical 40-day volatility (daily): 18.32%, down 0.33% [2] - At-the-money call option implied volatility (daily): 20.57%, down 0.31% [2] - At-the-money put option implied volatility (daily): 20.14%, down 0.02% [2] Industry News - The World Steel Association expects global steel demand in 2025 to be flat with 2024 at around 1.75 billion tons. China's steel demand decline will slow, while developing economies like India, Vietnam, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia will see strong growth, and European steel demand will have a long-awaited recovery [2] - Rio Tinto's Q3 report shows the Simandou project's overall commissioning progress is ahead of schedule, with the first batch of iron ore expected to be shipped to the port in October, about a month earlier than planned. Mysteel predicts the substantial growth from the Simandou project's capacity release will be more evident in 2026 [2] Viewpoint Summary - The I2601 contract's 1-hour MACD indicator shows DIFF and DEA adjusting downward. Operationally, short on rebounds, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]