瑞达期货集运指数（欧线）期货日报-20251015

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Viewpoints - Recently, multiple bullish and bearish factors are intertwined. Trade war escalation restricts transport demand, the "peace plan" in the Middle East improves the expectation of Red Sea re - navigation, and the supply - demand imbalance persists. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and the "off - peak season" in shipping may continue. The freight rate market is highly influenced by news, and futures prices are likely to experience intensified fluctuations. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures Market Data - EC主力收盘价 is 1708.600, up 69.6; EC次主力收盘价 is 1463.4, up 46.8 [1] - EC2512 - EC2602价差 is 245.20, up 35.50; EC2512 - EC2604价差 is 566.60, up 42.50 [1] - EC合约基差 is - 676.80, down 34.50 [1] - EC主力持仓量 is 27023, down 168 [1] b) Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly) is 1031.80, up 14.70; SCFIS (US West Coast Line) (weekly) is 862.48, down 14.34 [1] - SCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) is 1114.52, down 45.90; Container ship capacity is 1,227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), up 0.04 [1] - CCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) is 1087.41, up 72.63; CCFI (European Line) (weekly) is 1,401.91, up 114.76 [1] - Baltic Dry Index (daily) is 2022.00, up 122.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily) is 1,815.00, down 9.00 [1] - Average charter price of Panamax ships is 14769.00, down 845.00; Average charter price of Capesize ships is 23,277.00, up 23277.00 [1] c) Industry News - The US implements final measures of the 301 investigation on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors. South Korea's Hanwha Ocean's US - related subsidiaries assist. China counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean, banning domestic organizations and individuals from trading and cooperating with them. The Ministry of Commerce urges the US to correct wrong practices [1] - Premier Li Qiang chairs an economic symposium, emphasizing accurately grasping the current economic situation from a broader perspective and strengthening confidence [1] - The IMF predicts the world economy to grow 3.2% in 2025 (up 0.2 percentage points from July's forecast) and 3.1% in 2026. It slightly raises the US economic growth forecast and keeps China's 2025 growth forecast at 4.8% [1] d) Market Analysis - On Wednesday, most futures prices of the container shipping index (European Line) rose. The main contract EC2512 rose 4.25%, and far - month contracts rose between 1 - 4%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index is 1031.80, down 14.7 points (1.4% MoM) from last week, with a narrowing decline [1] - The strike at Rotterdam Port has escalated, causing port operations to halt. Over 60 ships are waiting at sea, increasing regional supply - chain uncertainty. CMA CGM announces a price increase in November, boosting futures prices. Trump's statement about increasing tariffs on Asian imports may weaken freight rates in the long - term. The "peace plan" in the Middle East improves Red Sea re - navigation expectations, weakening price support. Eurozone economic data is volatile, with manufacturing PMI in September slightly worse than last month but service PMI exceeding expectations. China's improved export data in September benefits container shipping [1] e) Key Data to Watch - UK's 3 - month GDP monthly rate for August at 14:00 on 10 - 16; UK's manufacturing output monthly rate for August at 14:00 on 10 - 16 [1] - US retail sales monthly rate for September at 20:30 on 10 - 16; US PPI annual rate for September at 20:30 on 10 - 16 [1] - US business inventory monthly rate for August at 22:00 on 10 - 16 [1]